FX.co ★ USD/CAD

I observed that the USD/CAD pair experienced a notable decline on Friday, and I attribute this primarily to the release of positive economic data from Canada, which I see as having exceeded market expectations and strengthened the Canadian dollar significantly. I also noticed that the US dollar showed signs of weakness, and I interpret this as being influenced by growing expectations of a potential easing in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, which I believe decreased the demand for the American currency. I was initially hoping to see a slight increase in the pair, and I had anticipated at least a modest upward correction, but I observed that the quotes immediately began to fall without even forming a clear pattern, which I found significant in confirming the strength of the bearish momentum. I analyzed Friday’s daily candle, and I saw that it closed below the 1/2 zone range of 1.4030–1.4020, which I interpret as a strong signal for a continuation of the downward movement next week. I expect that, if the decline persists, the pair could reach the full margin zone of 1.3932–1.3913, which I consider an important target level for bears. I also noticed that the pair is approaching this target level rapidly, and I plan to monitor the market closely for any signs of correction before making further decisions. I am prepared to wait for the close of the American session to confirm whether the downward movement will continue without interruption, and I see this as a prudent approach to reduce risk. I am also considering opening short positions if a correction occurs, particularly in the resistance zone of 1.3985–1.4006, which I view as a strategic entry point. I will continue to monitor the momentum and price action carefully, and I plan to adjust my strategy dynamically based on intraday movements and the broader trend, because I understand that the interplay between the Canadian economic strength and potential US policy shifts can create rapid fluctuations in this pair. I remain focused on disciplined trading, and I aim to use each price reaction to refine my entries and exits while maintaining a clear view of the market structure.

I have taken the weekend to carefully examine the USD/CAD pair on the weekly chart, and I find that the overall situation appears somewhat unclear and not entirely logical at first glance, which I see as a challenge for my intraday trading decisions. I do notice, however, that there seems to be a priority direction, and I interpret this direction as upward, with a significant local high recorded at 1.4791, which I consider a critical reference point for assessing potential future growth. I do not expect the price to form a complex zigzag with a renewal of this peak in the near term, and I believe such a scenario is unlikely for a long time, but I do see a realistic possibility for the USD/CAD pair to return to the 1.45–1.46 zone, which I regard as a plausible target pattern for medium-term growth. I pay close attention to the fact that the price is currently trading above the moving average, and I take this as a confirmation that the upward trend and buying remain my priority focus, which I plan to incorporate into my trading decisions. I also observe that last week’s decline was quite significant, and I interpret this as having brought the price to levels from which I consider buying to be attractive and relatively reliable, reinforcing my confidence in maintaining a bullish bias. I recognize that, so far, this approach has worked well for me, and I plan to continue monitoring the pair with this perspective in mind. I also notice the ongoing flat between the 1.39–1.41 zone, and I consider this consolidation as a temporary pause rather than a reversal, which I see as giving me time to prepare for potential upward moves. I remain focused on aligning my intraday strategies with the higher timeframe structure, and I intend to carefully watch for confirmations and reactions within the local price patterns before opening positions. I will continue to prioritize growth-oriented trades as long as the weekly trend remains supportive, and I plan to adjust my entries, stops, and targets dynamically based on price action, momentum, and the relationship between USD strength and CAD responses, ensuring that I maintain discipline and capitalize on reliable opportunities in the pair.