FX.co ★ USD/JPY

USD/JPY H4 Timeframe: Price movement on the USD/JPY H4 timeframe chart exhibits quite interesting dynamics, especially when we focus our analysis on two key indicators: the 100-day moving average (MA) (blue line) and the 200-day moving average (MA) (red line). These two moving averages serve as determinants of the medium- to long-term trend structure, while also providing insight into the strength of momentum and potential price changes in direction over the next few sessions. Overall, from October to mid-November, the price followed a clear uptrend, characterized by prices consistently above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The slopes of both moving averages gradually increased, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. The 100-day moving average (MA) remained above the 200-day moving average (MA) for an extended period, confirming buyer dominance during that phase. This bullish momentum peaked around 157.90, before the price began to weaken and form lower highs. From late November to early December, the price movement changed. The price began to decline and broke below the 100-day moving average (MA) several times, an early sign that buyer strength was eroding. Despite a brief pullback above the 100-day moving average (MA), the price failed to maintain its position and fell back below it. This indicates that the 100-day moving average, previously acting as dynamic support, is now shifting to medium-term resistance.

More importantly, the price is now approaching the 200-day moving average (MA), even consolidating just above it. The 200-day moving average acts as a key dynamic support level in the long-term trend structure. As long as the price remains above the 200-day moving average (MA), the overall bullish trend remains viable, although ongoing corrective pressure cannot be ruled out. If the price decisively breaks through the 200-day moving average (MA) with a solid H4 candle, a larger trend change could begin to form, signaling a potential transition to a medium-term bearish trend. In the current context, the price appears to be moving weakly sideways between the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 200-day moving average (MA). This reflects indecisive market conditions, with buyers and sellers yet to establish absolute dominance. However, the tendency to form lower highs and the increasing pressure below the 200-day moving average (MA) indicate that bearish momentum is gaining strength. If the price remains stuck below the 100-day moving average (MA), pressure on the 200-day moving average (MA) will likely continue. Overall, the current technical conditions place USD/JPY in a critical phase. The 100-day moving average (MA) has transformed into initial dynamic resistance, while the 200-day moving average (MA) is the final support level, determining whether the long-term bullish structure can be maintained. A decisive breakout of either of these two moving averages will significantly determine the direction of the next move.