FX.co ★ EUR/USD

Market Analysis The EUR/USD forex pair on the 1-hour timeframe, as depicted in the chart from November 28 to December 9, 2025, reveals a predominantly bullish trend with underlying volatility influenced by broader economic factors. Starting at approximately 1.1550, the price action shows an initial upward momentum, peaking around 1.1690 before experiencing minor pullbacks. This movement aligns with global market sentiments, potentially driven by Eurozone economic data releases, such as inflation figures or ECB policy hints, contrasted against U.S. Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates. The red trendline, likely a 50-period simple moving average (SMA), acts as dynamic support, with price consistently bouncing off it during dips, indicating sustained buyer interest. Volume appears steady, though not explicitly shown, inferred from candlestick sizes suggesting institutional participation. The RSI(14) oscillator, hovering between 30 and 70, avoids extreme overbought or oversold conditions, signaling a balanced market without immediate reversal risks. Overall, this setup reflects a maturing uptrend in a risk-on environment, where liquidity providers maintain order flow, but upcoming events like U.S. non-farm payrolls could introduce disruptions. This analysis underscores the pairs sensitivity to transatlantic policy divergences, with the euro gaining ground amid dollar weakness. Price Action and Liquidity Price action in this EUR/USD chart emphasizes a series of higher highs and higher lows, characteristic of an ascending channel, with liquidity pools forming at key levels. From November 28, the pair initiates a rally from the 1.1550 support zone, where previous sell-offs likely exhausted, creating a liquidity void that buyers exploited. As price ascends, it encounters resistance near 1.1625 mid-chart, marked by a cluster of doji and spinning top candles, indicating indecision but ultimately resolved bullishly. The moving average reinforces this by curving upward, acting as a liquidity magnet where stop-loss orders from short sellers cluster below, fueling squeezes. Liquidity analysis reveals potential grabs at swing lows, such as on December 1 and 4, where price dips briefly to sweep stops before reversing. By December 8-9, the trend slows, with shallower pullbacks suggesting diminishing liquidity on the upside, possibly due to holiday thinning in markets. This dynamic highlights how smart money accumulates during retracements, using retail trader stops as fuel. In essence, the price action demonstrates efficient liquidity hunting, with the pairs behavior pointing to continued upward bias unless external shocks, like geopolitical tensions, alter flow. Candlestick Behavior and Confirmation Candlestick patterns in this 1-hour EUR/USD chart provide critical insights into trader psychology, with bullish engulfing and hammer formations dominating the uptrend. Early in the period, around November 28-30, a series of green marubozu candles signal strong buying pressure, closing near highs with minimal wicks, confirming momentum. Mid-chart, on December 2-3, a bearish pin bar emerges at peaks, hinting at rejection, but subsequent bullish confirmation via inside bars resolves the hesitation, aligning with the SMA crossover. The RSI complements this, dipping to 40 during pullbacks but rebounding without divergence, validating the candlestick strength. Later, on December 5-6, clustered doji candles at the trendline indicate equilibrium, followed by a piercing line pattern that confirms resumption. By December 9, fading volume in smaller candles suggests waning conviction, yet no shooting star or evening star forms to signal reversal. These behaviors, when confirmed by multi-timeframe alignment—such as daily charts showing similar uptrends—offer reliable entries. Overall, the candlesticks exhibit classic trend continuation traits, with confirmations reducing false signals in this volatile pair.

Trade Setup and Risk Management For a potential long trade setup based on this EUR/USD chart, entry could target bounces off the SMA around 1.1625, with confirmation from a bullish candlestick close above prior highs. Stop-loss placement below the recent swing low at 1.1580 ensures protection against breakdowns, aiming for a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2, targeting 1.1690 resistance or beyond to 1.1720 based on Fibonacci extensions. Position sizing should adhere to 1-2% account risk per trade, calculated as (entry - stop) / account value, to mitigate drawdowns. Trailing stops, perhaps at breakeven after 50% profit, lock in gains amid volatility. Conversely, a short setup might emerge if price breaks below the trendline with RSI divergence, entering on retest with stops above the break. Diversification across correlated pairs like GBP/USD avoids overexposure. Monitoring news via economic calendars prevents holding through high-impact events. Effective risk management integrates journaling trades for pattern recognition, ensuring emotional discipline. This structured approach transforms the charts signals into actionable plans, emphasizing preservation of capital over aggressive gains. Conclusion In summary, the EUR/USD 1-hour chart from late November to early December 2025 illustrates a resilient uptrend bolstered by supportive price action, liquidity dynamics, and confirmatory candlesticks, though signs of fatigue emerge toward the end. The integration of technical indicators like the SMA and RSI underscores a market favoring bulls, yet prudent trade setups with robust risk management are essential to navigate potential reversals. Traders should remain vigilant for macroeconomic shifts that could invalidate this bias. Ultimately, this analysis highlights the importance of multi-faceted evaluation in forex trading, promoting disciplined strategies for sustainable success.