FX.co ★ USD/JPY

I am focusing this analysis on the USD/JPY instrument, and I am approaching it strictly from a technical perspective while respecting the established Forum Rules and the Rules of Good Form. I am observing that USD/JPY continues to reflect the broader interaction between US dollar strength and Japanese yen safe-haven behavior, and I am carefully analyzing price action without relying on emotional bias or unsupported claims. I am paying close attention to the higher timeframes, where I see that the overall structure provides context for intraday movements, and I am using this structure to avoid random entries. I am monitoring key support and resistance zones, as I believe these levels represent areas of institutional interest where liquidity is likely to be concentrated. I am also incorporating trend analysis, and I note whether price is respecting ascending or descending channels, as this helps me align my trades with the dominant market direction. I am using moving averages as dynamic support and resistance, and I am watching how price reacts around them to gauge momentum and potential continuation or reversal scenarios. I am considering momentum indicators, not as standalone signals, but as confirmation tools to validate what I already see in price behavior. I am aware that false breakouts are common on USD/JPY, so I am waiting for candle confirmations and clear closes rather than reacting impulsively. I am documenting my analysis clearly and objectively, and I am prepared to support it with chart screenshots that include my markup for transparency and discussion purposes. I am deliberately avoiding spam, copy-paste content, or emotional appeals, because I believe disciplined communication reflects disciplined trading. I am aligning my analysis with the spirit of constructive participation encouraged by ForexMoney Forum, and I am sharing insights with the intention of mutual learning rather than persuasion. I am continuously reviewing my assumptions, and I am adapting my outlook as new price data emerges, because I understand that the market is dynamic. I am ultimately aiming for consistent, well-reasoned decision-making on USD/JPY, and I am confident that maintaining this structured analytical approach contributes to more professional dialogue and potentially more profitable trading outcomes for everyone involved.

I am analyzing the recent price action on the USD/JPY H4 chart, and I note that the depth of the decline before the retest of the MA100 and MA200 midpoints is technically significant in the current wave context. I am interpreting the formation of a lower fractal around the 155.67 level as an important structural element that supports the idea of a corrective phase rather than the start of a new impulsive bearish trend. I am inclined to view this movement as the development of a second connecting wave “x,” which fits logically within the framework of a potential ascending triple zigzag labeled “wxyxz.” I am basing this interpretation on the proportionality of the corrective swings and the way price respects key dynamic averages during pullbacks. I am also considering that this complex correction still serves a larger purpose, namely the construction of the final fifth wave within an extended ending diagonal pattern. I am aware that this ending diagonal itself is forming wave “C” of the broader ascending daily zigzag “ABC,” which keeps the higher-timeframe bullish scenario technically valid for now. I am paying close attention to momentum behavior, as I expect it to gradually rebuild during this connecting wave phase rather than accelerate aggressively. I am focusing on the immediate outlook, where I believe the market is preparing for another upward leg rather than a sustained decline. I am identifying the 157.90 local high as a critical resistance level, because a decisive break above it would confirm the completion of the internal structure of the extended ending diagonal. I am cautious, however, and I understand that failure to break this level could lead to further consolidation or deeper corrective movement. I am planning my expectations with the understanding that ending diagonals often produce deceptive moves and overlapping price action. I am also mindful that once the diagonal structure is fully completed, the probability of a medium-term decline increases significantly. I am therefore viewing any near-term bullish movement as potentially corrective within a larger cycle rather than the start of a new long-term uptrend. I am maintaining a disciplined and flexible outlook, ready to reassess my wave count if market structure invalidates this scenario.