FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EUR/USD Technical Analysis (D1 Timeframe) Based on the provided EURUSD D1 chart data, price action is consolidating near the upper bounds of its recent range, presenting a potential bearish reversal scenario. The current candle shows a narrow range around 1.1795, directly testing a key horizontal support/resistance level. However, the primary technical picture suggests exhaustion of the prior uptrend. The most significant signal is a clear bearish divergence on the MACD (0.00459 vs. prior 0.00389), where the histogram is declining while price tests the 1.1925 high. This indicates waning upward momentum. Concurrently, the RSI at 69.78 is in overbought territory, further supporting the case for a pullback. Price structure shows a double-top pattern forming with the recent peak at 1.1925. A sustained break below the neckline near 1.1790/95 would confirm this pattern and project a move toward the 1.1625 support area. Immediate support lies at 1.1779, with stronger levels at 1.1700 and 1.1625.

Trade Setup Summary (Bearish Bias): • Direction: Sell • Entry Zone: On a confirmed break and close below 1.1790, or on a rejection from the 1.1850 area. • Stop Loss: Above the recent swing high at 1.1925 (e.g., 1.1940). • Take Profit Targets: TP1 at 1.1700 (key support), TP2 at 1.1625 (pattern target & strong support). • Risk/Reward: Favorable, approximately 1:2 or better if targeting 1.1625. In summary, the confluence of a bearish MACD divergence, overbought RSI, and a potential double-top pattern near a major resistance level advocates for a cautious bearish outlook. Any long positions would only be reconsidered on a decisive break above 1.1925, which would negate the current reversal setup.