FX.co ★ EUR/USD

I expect some turbulence today, but I believe the real complications are more likely to appear tomorrow, especially given the thin and distorted liquidity conditions caused by the Christmas holidays. I note that EUR/USD attempted to form a double top yesterday, but I observe that today’s price behavior does not yet present a clearly defined continuation pattern, which adds uncertainty to the short-term outlook. I recall that yesterday I allowed for a potential rise toward 1.1802, and I acknowledge that this scenario largely played out when I executed a sell and protected the position with a breakeven stop at 1.1789. I emphasize that today I am not considering opening new positions, as I recognize that holiday trading often invalidates otherwise reliable technical signals. I understand that traders who were expecting a deeper downside move may feel disappointed, because I clearly see that the market did not allow EUR/USD to fall much below 1.1750. I observe strong support forming near yesterday’s lows around 1.1760, and I interpret this as a sign that buyers are still actively defending key levels. I analyze the H1 timeframe and see that the price is holding above the daily opening level at 1.1765, which I interpret as an early sign of bullish intraday sentiment. I also see that the pair remains above the daily pivot at 1.1745, and I consider this an important technical confirmation that buyers still control the broader intraday structure. I notice that the main indicators are pointing upward, and I treat this alignment as confirmation that short-term bullish momentum remains valid. I observe that the price is trading above the MA72 trendline, and I know this area often acts as a zone of volume redistribution, making the current consolidation technically meaningful.

I identify 1.1777 as a critical intraday decision level, and I believe sustained trading above this level could open the path toward 1.1785 and potentially 1.1801 if momentum strengthens. I also consider an alternative scenario in which a failure to hold above 1.1777 triggers a corrective pullback toward 1.1765 and possibly the daily pivot at 1.1745. I note that EUR/USD remains well above the monthly pivot at 1.1574, previously 1.1611, and I interpret this as evidence of a broader bullish bias on higher timeframes. I also see that the price is holding above the weekly pivot at 1.1737 compared to the earlier 1.1704, and although this structurally supports buyers, I remain cautious due to reduced liquidity. I identify resistance at 1.1785 and support near 1.1751, and I plan to use these levels strictly for risk evaluation rather than active trading. I factor in strong US data, and I recognize that the better-than-expected GDP reading has provided renewed strength to the US dollar. I review my previous H4 forecast and see that the ascending channel and overbought conditions played out exactly as anticipated when price respected the 1.1805 resistance. I confirm that the subsequent decline toward the 1.1778 area validates my earlier expectation of a corrective move. I acknowledge that this correction could still extend, but I remain sidelined until lower timeframes, such as M30, provide clearer structural signals. I monitor the dollar index closely, and I remain aware that upcoming US consumer confidence data could temporarily increase volatility and influence the next intraday decision.