FX.co ★ USD/CAD
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USD/CAD
I am closely tracking the USD/CAD currency pair as it experiences a significant surge in market interest today, Friday, January 9, 2026. The exchange rate is currently localized near 1.3871, marking a notable recovery from the consolidation seen in late 2025. I see the Canadian Dollar struggling to find a solid footing against a resilient Greenback, primarily due to shifting global oil dynamics and a widening gap in economic performance between the two North American neighbors. The pair is currently testing monthly highs as traders position themselves for a rare simultaneous release of labor data from both Ottawa and Washington. Immediate fundamental economic catalysts I am focusing on several high-impact events today that I believe will define the trajectory of the "Loonie" for the remainder of the month. North American Jobs Double-Header: At 8:30 AM ET today, both the US Non-Farm Payrolls and the Canadian Labour Force Survey will be released. I am watching for the US to show a gain of approximately 60,000 jobs. For Canada, the consensus points toward a stagnant labor market with an unemployment rate holding near 7%. A divergence where the US outperforms Canada would likely be the spark needed to push this pair toward the 1.4000 handle. Energy Market Structural Shifts: I have noted that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading near $57.22. The recent US military and diplomatic oversight of Venezuelan oil exports has introduced expectations of a massive supply increase. Since oil is Canada’s primary export, I view this persistent weakness in crude prices as a heavy anchor preventing any sustained CAD recovery. Central Bank Policy Gaps: While the Bank of Canada has paused its rate-hiking cycle at 2.25%, the Federal Reserve’s recent "Freedom Trade" momentum has kept the USD demand high. I see the market pricing in fewer US rate cuts than previously expected, which maintains a favorable interest rate spread for those holding USD/CAD long positions. Support and resistance architecture My current technical analysis identifies several critical "battleground" levels where price action is likely to stall or pivot. Primary Resistance (1.3880 – 1.3900): This is the immediate psychological ceiling. I have observed price stalling at 1.3880 throughout the early morning session. A decisive breakout above 1.3900 would signal a shift toward much higher targets. Major Resistance (1.4010): This level represents the December peak. I believe this remains the ultimate objective for bulls if todays employment data favors the US. Immediate Support (1.3800 – 1.3820): I view the 1.3800 handle as the most important short-term floor. If the price fails to hold this level on a daily close, the current bullish recovery may lose its validity. Critical Support (1.3705): This is the long-term structural support. I do not expect this level to be tested unless there is a massive surprise in the Canadian data that triggers a sharp USD sell-off. Tactical indicator strategy I am utilizing a combination of trend-following and momentum tools to gauge the strength of the current move at 1.3871. Moving Average Strategy: I am closely monitoring the 200-day EMA, which currently sits near 1.3865. The fact that the price is trading just above this major long-term average tells me that the primary trend is attempting to turn bullish again. As long as the 4-hour candles continue to close above the 50-day EMA at 1.3853, I will maintain a bias toward buying the dips. MACD Indicator: On the 4-hour timeframe, I observe that the MACD line has crossed above the signal line. The histogram is expanding into positive territory, which confirms that upward momentum is currently building. However, I am watching for a potential "bearish divergence" on the RSI, which suggests that the pair might be slightly overextended before the news hits the tape. Fibonacci tuning for entry and exit By applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from the 1.4130 high to the 1.3643 low, I have mapped out the most efficient entry and exit zones. Optimal Entry (38.2% Retracement): This level is located at 1.3829. I view this as a high-confluence zone for new long positions. If the NFP data causes a temporary "knee-jerk" dip in the USD, I will look for price stabilization here to join the uptrend. Golden Ratio Target (61.8% Retracement): My primary exit target for current long trades is 1.3945. Historically, this "Golden Ratio" acts as a magnet for price during recovery phases, and I expect significant profit-taking to occur here. Secondary Exit Point: For those seeking a more conservative profit target, the 50% retracement level at 1.3887 provides a logical place to scale out of positions before tackling the 1.4000 resistance.
