I find myself reflecting on how we narrowly missed the 1.1610 level once more, and I am holding onto the hope that perhaps it will all work out when the markets reopen on Monday. I am also continually grappling with this frustrating problem where the price consistently misses my key levels by just a few points, a situation that feels like a recurring test of my patience and analytical precision. I observed that as a result of the trading activity on Friday, the day concluded with a distinct bearish candle, which I interpret as a sign of persistent selling pressure entering the market. I can see that the price is currently situated at 1.1634, a placement that feels precarious and indicative of the ongoing battle between bullish and bearish forces on this pair. I have identified that clear sell targets have been formed on the hourly chart, providing me with a structured roadmap for a potential downward move. I note that the first of these targets, which aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level, is positioned at 1.1631, and I must acknowledge that this initial target has already been effectively reached, confirming part of my technical thesis
I am now focusing my attention on the second target, which is the 261.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1613, a point I believe could act as a stronger magnet for price if the bearish momentum sustains. I am also aware of a third, more ambitious target at the 423.6% Fibonacci extension, corresponding to 1.1584, a level I would consider a significant bearish achievement if tested. However, I maintain a disciplined awareness that a decisive breakout above the nearby resistance at 1.1659 would completely cancel my current downward scenario, a contingency for which I must be mentally and strategically prepared. I understand that in such a bullish breakout scenario, my carefully plotted sell targets would instantly become irrelevant, forcing me to swiftly reassess the market structure. I would then expect new buy targets to be formed, redirecting my tactical approach entirely. Consequently, in that alternate scenario, I would patiently wait for the asset to grow within what I would label a northern correction, initially targeting the approximate region of 1.1700. I envision that from the higher area of 1.1700-1.1742, which I view as a potent resistance zone, it would then become possible to consider selling positions again, with the ultimate aim of capturing a decrease and updating the local minimum. I am therefore in a state of vigilant readiness, knowing my next steps are wholly dependent on which key level the price respects first, and I am preparing myself to act without hesitation based on that confirmed signal from the market.
