From my analysis of the global perspective, I observe that the GBPUSD instrument is currently confined within the range of a significant momentum candle. I interpret the moving average indicator as demonstrating a pronounced strength in bearish sentiment; therefore, I maintain that until this indicator generates a clear reversal signal, the predominant potential remains only for a continued decline. I am closely monitoring the price action, and I note that the bearish momentum appears to be the dominant narrative on the higher timeframes. I believe that any upward movements at this stage should be viewed with suspicion, as they are likely mere corrections within a broader negative trend. I see the overarching market structure as being heavily influenced by this bearish alignment, which suggests that rallies are likely to be sold into by the broader market sentiment. I consider it crucial for any trader to respect the weight of this technical evidence before attempting to counter-trend positions, as the path of least resistance seems firmly skewed to the downside from this vantage point
Furthermore, I am examining the current activity on the H1 chart, where I see the currency trading near the 1.341 level, which I identify as indicative of the beginning of a corrective phase. I argue that for the currency to resume its primary decline, a decisive break below the correction zone at 1.346 is absolutely necessary. I hypothesize that given this specific price behavior, a price channel will open toward the key upper boundaries near 1.356, and I expect consolidation above that breakout point would further confirm the seller's underlying strength. Simultaneously, I do not completely rule out a potential reversal scenario originating from the 1.354 area, moving in a positive direction. However, I must emphasize that for this bullish development to materialize, I require the buyer to forcefully break through the formidable supply zone positioned at 1.355, which I currently see as a major obstacle for any bullish momentum. I am also watching the development of any upward trend carefully, and I identify the first critical level to be broken, or conversely to act as a formidable obstacle, as the intermediate high of 1.357. I believe a breach of this level would fundamentally challenge the current bearish thesis and could potentially signal a more profound shift in market structure, though I presently view this as a lower probability outcome given the preponderance of evidence favoring the bears. I am preparing for both eventualities, but my primary bias remains aligned with the downside unless the key resistance zones are convincingly overcome, which I have yet to witness.
