Yesterday’s market close clearly demonstrated how sensitive price action remains to macroeconomic news, as the release of unemployment data initially appeared positive but ultimately resulted in further strengthening of the US dollar, forcing a shift in overall market sentiment. Despite the encouraging data, the dollar absorbed the optimism and pushed risk assets lower, reinforcing the bearish pressure on GBP/USD. At the same time, the absence of Donald Trump from public headlines has been noticeable, raising questions about when his influence might again stir volatility, particularly as the new trading week approaches. From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair shows strong signs of continued weakness, with the possibility of extending its decline early next week. Initial downside targets remain near 1.3287, followed closely by the support at 1.3266, while broader bearish momentum suggests that price could ultimately gravitate toward the 1.3020 region. The imbalance zone near 1.3355 may be partially mitigated in the short term, but this does not invalidate the prevailing downward trend. Risk management remains critical, as sudden countertrend moves could occur, potentially reversing prices and negatively impacting trader sentiment and capital. With this in mind, sell positions are being considered from the 1.3391 area, aligning with the dominant trend and reinforcing the idea that patience and discipline will be essential as the new trading week unfolds.
On the M30 timeframe, the bearish structure is clearly defined, as price decisively broke below the 1.3456 support level and successfully consolidated beneath it, converting former support into resistance. However, this level has not yet been retested, suggesting that a corrective pullback remains technically justified. At present, price is reacting to weekly support around 1.3401, repeatedly rejecting lower levels and forming long lower wicks, which reflects temporary seller exhaustion rather than a confirmed reversal. Additionally, price has already reached its average weekly decline, increasing the probability of a corrective bounce. Momentum indicators, including directional arrows and basement signals, point toward a short-term upward correction, potentially allowing price to revisit 1.3456 for a classic resistance retest before sellers re-enter. Friday’s session closed with a bearish candlestick, reinforcing downside pressure, while Fibonacci extensions on the H1 chart highlight downside targets at 1.3392, 1.3356, and 1.3298, with the first level already achieved. A clean break above 1.3446 would invalidate the bearish scenario and open the door for a corrective move toward 1.3481 or even higher, though such a move would likely remain corrective in nature. From a broader perspective, GBP/USD remains trapped within the range of a dominant bearish momentum candle, with moving averages confirming sustained seller control. High volume during the recent breakdown below 1.3414 further supports the view that institutional bears are actively building positions. As long as price remains below the correction zone near 1.346 and fails to reclaim the supply area around 1.355, the priority remains selling, with expectations of a retest of 1.3414 followed by continuation toward 1.3360 and potentially lower levels in the sessions ahead.
