FX.co ★ CL/Crude Oil

I am observing that after touching the upper Bollinger Band, price has pulled back toward the middle band, and I interpret this as a healthy pause following a strong bullish push rather than an immediate reversal signal. I see this behavior as a classic cooling phase, and I believe it reflects short-term profit-taking and reduced momentum rather than aggressive selling pressure. I note that if price finds support near the mid-band and begins to stabilize, I would expect another attempt to challenge the 58.80 and potentially the 59.00 region. I am also watching the RSI (14), which I see holding in the 60–65 zone, and I interpret this as confirmation that bullish momentum remains intact without being overstretched. I recognize that RSI previously approached higher levels before easing slightly, and I view this as consolidation rather than a bearish divergence. I believe that as long as RSI remains above the 50 level, buyers continue to maintain structural control of the market. I am therefore not in favor of chasing price at current levels, and I prefer to wait for price to come back toward well-defined areas of value. I would personally consider aggressive long setups only near the 58.00–57.80 zone, and I would do so with tight risk management while targeting a retest of the recent highs. I would advise more conservative positioning only after a clear break and close above the 58.80–59.00 resistance area, as I see that zone as a confirmation of continuation strength. I also remain cautious because I acknowledge that a decisive break below 57.80 would likely shift the market into a deeper corrective phase toward 57.20–56.90. I conclude from this structure that the H1 trend remains bullish, but I believe the market is currently digesting gains rather than trending aggressively.

I am also factoring in the broader fundamental backdrop, and I see WTI easing after rallying nearly 4% as markets reassess the implications of increased US oversight of Venezuelan oil production. I interpret the recent pullback toward the 58.00 area as a reflection of renewed oversupply concerns following signals from US President Donald Trump regarding potential large-scale investment in Venezuela’s oil sector. I believe that the prospect of unlocking Venezuelan reserves has introduced caution into the market, even though near-term momentum has technically improved. I am encouraged by the fact that price has reclaimed the 21-day SMA near 57.24 and that RSI has moved back above 50, as I see these developments as signs of short-term stabilization. I also observe that the MACD line remains above the signal line with a widening positive histogram, and I interpret this as modest bullish momentum building near the neutral zone. I remain cautious, however, because I see the broader trend as fragile, with the 50-day SMA near 58.34 and the 100-day SMA near 60.13 continuing to cap upside attempts. I view repeated failures near the 60.00 psychological level as evidence that rallies are still corrective within a broader bearish framework. I note that ADX hovering near 20 suggests a weak trend environment, and I therefore expect choppy and range-bound price action to persist. I am aware that OPEC production dynamics remain mixed, and I recognize that higher output from Iraq has largely offset reduced Venezuelan supply. I acknowledge that Saudi Arabia’s restraint has helped prevent a sharper supply surge, but I do not see it as sufficient to trigger a sustained bullish repricing. I therefore maintain a cautious bias, and I continue to favor a sell-on-rallies approach unless price can achieve a clear and sustained daily close above the 58.34–60.00 resistance zone.