FX.co ★ USD/JPY

I am analyzing the USDJPY currency pair on the daily chart, and I clearly see that the new year has just begun while the broader wave structure on this higher timeframe continues to build upward in a consistent and technically sound manner. I note that the MACD indicator remains firmly in the upper buy zone and is positioned above its signal line, which confirms to me that bullish momentum is still dominant and that buyers maintain control of the market. I observe that in December there were two clear attempts by sellers to extend the decline, yet both of these attempts failed as price was decisively blocked by the horizontal support level around 154.37, which in my view highlights the strength of demand in this area. I see that despite repeated pressure, the market could not break below this level, and I interpret this as strong evidence that sellers were absorbed by larger players accumulating long positions. I recognize that a double-bottom growth pattern formed within the broader uptrend, and I believe this structure acted as a catalyst for the renewed bullish movement that followed. I think this pattern clearly indicates that enough sellers were trapped and accumulated at lower levels to later fuel a stronger upward push as stops were triggered. I believe that the price is now clearly striving to renew the high of last year, 2024, around the 162.14 area, even though this level is not immediately visible on the daily chart. I note that when I shift my perspective to the weekly chart, this level becomes obvious and stands out as a major long-term reference point for market participants. I expect that, as already seen, price has first broken above the high of 2025 that was formed in January, which in my view is a logical intermediate step in the broader bullish sequence. I anticipate that after this breakout, growth may temporarily pause, because I expect bearish divergence to form on momentum indicators as price stretches higher. I think that this pause will likely serve as a mechanism for the market to accumulate new sellers who react to the divergence and attempt to fade the trend prematurely. I believe that these sellers will then be trapped as price resumes its upward movement and pushes beyond the 2024 high, completing the larger bullish objective. I am convinced that only after this key high is broken can we realistically expect a meaningful reversal on the daily timeframe and a full-fledged downward correction. I therefore maintain the view that until this target is achieved, it is more reasonable to focus exclusively on shorter-term buy opportunities rather than attempting to catch a top. I see the broader market context as supportive of US dollar strength against major currency pairs in the near term, based on both technical structure and relative performance. I note that USDJPY has strengthened more aggressively than most other pairs in recent months and has shown remarkably shallow pullbacks, which reinforces my bullish bias. I believe this behavior is partly explained by Japan’s ongoing preference for a weaker yen, as a cheap currency provides economic advantages and supports exports. I find it significant that even the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, which theoretically should have weakened the US dollar, failed to produce a sustained bearish reaction in this pair. I recognize that the 2024 high is not only the high of that specific year but also the all-time high visible on the trading terminal, which adds even more technical importance to this level. I am increasingly confident that this all-time high is likely to be broken in the near future, given the persistent strength and lack of meaningful corrective structures. I conclude that, based on everything I observe, the US dollar is currently strengthening quite intensively, and I believe the USDJPY pair remains structurally bullish until proven otherwise.

Greetings, colleague! I am looking at the USD/JPY daily chart through the lens of indicator-based analysis, and I clearly notice that the MA100 is trending upward with a very active angle close to 30 degrees, which immediately tells me that the prevailing medium-term trend remains bullish and that buying sentiment has dominated the market throughout the week. I see that price has been confidently holding above this moving average, and I interpret this behavior as confirmation that buyers have been firmly in control and that pullbacks have been shallow and aggressively bought. I also observe that all three Bollinger Bands are positioned above the key moving average, and I take this as a classical sign of sustained bullish pressure and strong trend continuation. I remember that earlier all three Bollinger Bands were almost perfectly parallel to each other and moving upward at roughly the same 30-degree angle, which to me reflected a technically healthy and balanced trend structure. I now notice, however, that the edges of the outer Bollinger Bands have started to diverge and move in different directions, and I interpret this change as a warning that the indicator’s internal calculations are beginning to lose synchronicity with price behavior. I know from experience that such distortion in Bollinger Band geometry often appears near exhaustion phases, when volatility expansion no longer supports further trend development. I therefore suspect that this misalignment may be an early signal that the market is approaching a potential turning point or at least a corrective phase. I also pay close attention to the fact that the market is currently trading under a global sell signal from the Semaphore indicator, which was printed on a strong bullish daily candle. I find it particularly important that this candle managed to break beyond the upper Bollinger Band, because in my analysis this usually indicates a climax move where bulls have likely completed their main objectives. I believe that such aggressive closes above the upper band often reflect late buying rather than fresh institutional accumulation. I therefore think that many bulls who entered earlier may begin to lock in profits, creating conditions for a reversal or at least a pullback. I further observe that clusters of basement indicators are signaling overbought conditions, and I interpret this confluence as additional evidence that upward momentum is overstretched. I am aware that when multiple oscillators reach extreme zones simultaneously, the probability of a downside reaction increases significantly. I believe that these overbought readings suggest that buying power is becoming exhausted and that sellers are preparing to re-enter the market. I am not yet rushing into positions, but I am deliberately shifting my focus from trend-following buys to waiting patiently for clear sell confirmations. I plan to monitor bearish candlestick formations, breakdowns below short-term support levels, or renewed indicator crossovers as triggers. I conclude that although the broader trend remains bullish, the combination of Bollinger Band distortion, a Semaphore sell signal, and overbought basement indicators leads me to expect a downward correction, and I am therefore waiting specifically for sell signals to align before acting.