I must begin by acknowledging the heightened need for caution with our economic fundamentals at this moment. I recognize that the reappointment of the heads of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of International Statistics by the Trump administration introduces a profound layer of uncertainty. I believe that the recalculation of non-farm payrolls and inflation data according to political preferences severely compromises their objectivity. I feel that this manipulation directly erodes the bedrock of reliable analysis, making my trust in these official datasets increasingly less credible. I understand that when core inflation and employment figures are potentially skewed, my entire framework for assessing the economy’s health requires skeptical reevaluation. I am concerned that this environment demands I double-check every assumption and seek alternative data sources, as I can no longer take published government statistics at face value
However, I have observed that in the short term, the eurodollar market is still displaying a reassuring adherence to established forecasts. I see that its movements are more or less following the expected technical and fundamental pathways we previously charted. I find that for my immediate trading purposes, this provided just enough stability and predictability to proceed. I noted that the expected corrective move to the upside in the EURUSD currency pair did, in fact, materialize as I had anticipated. I watched the pair gather momentum and climb, confirming the underlying thesis I was working with, despite the murky fundamental backdrop. Yet, I must express my frustration that a key technical level was not properly engaged beforehand. I think it is a genuine shame that the 1.17 handle was not rigorously tested on the approach. I believe this lack of a proper test has left the trading asset without a crucial consolidation of selling pressure at that resistance zone. I am now left to question the durability of this upward move, as I suspect untested resistance may weaken the foundation for a sustained rally. Consequently, I am adjusting my risk parameters, as I feel the price action is missing a chapter of necessary market conversation that would have offered clearer conviction for the next directional phase.
