USD/CAD H4 Timeframe: On the H4 timeframe, the USD/CAD is still in a recovery phase after experiencing strong selling pressure since mid-January. The sharp decline during that period formed a clear bearish structure, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. However, in recent sessions, the price has begun to show signs of stabilization, forming a gradual upward pattern and consolidation in the intermediate zone, indicating a balancing process between buying and selling forces. The price is currently moving around 1.3680, between two major moving averages. The price's position above the intermediate moving average (blue line) indicates that short-term momentum is shifting to the bullish direction. However, the price remains just below the long-term moving average (red line), which has a downward slope. This condition indicates that the intermediate trend remains bearish, and any increase could potentially face selling pressure at this dynamic resistance area. The latest price structure shows that the 1.3715 to 1.3745 area is a key resistance zone. This level is close to the red moving average and was a previous distribution area, making it crucial for the continuation of the movement. If the price can decisively break through and hold above this zone, the opportunity for continued upside towards the 1.3845 area will increase. A breakout of this resistance will also signal an early change in the trend structure from bearish to neutral or even bullish in the medium term.
Conversely, if the price is rejected again at the current resistance area, the movement could potentially re-enter a consolidation phase or even resume the previous downtrend. The nearest support is around 1.3553, which is a key demand area and a previous price rebound point. A break below this level could re-establish seller dominance and open up room for downside towards the next support area around 1.3490. This zone is a key level, and if broken, would confirm the continuation of the broader bearish trend. From a momentum and market psychology perspective, the current phase reflects an upward correction following significant selling pressure. The ongoing rise tends to be gradual and non-impulsive, indicating that market participants remain cautious and that much of the increase is driven by profit-taking from previous short positions. As long as the price fails to establish a significant higher high above the long-term moving average, medium-term bearish sentiment will continue to overshadow the movement. Overall, the USD/CAD technical outlook on the H4 timeframe is in transition. The short-term bias is bullish as long as the price remains above the blue moving average (MA), but the intermediate trend remains bearish as the price has not yet broken through the red moving average. The price's future direction will be largely determined by the price reaction in the 1.3715–1.3745 resistance zone. A breakout above this area would strengthen the potential for a trend reversal, while failure to break through and a fall back below 1.3553 would indicate the downtrend will continue in the next few trading sessions.
