FX.co ★ USD/CHF

I am maintaining my long-standing forecast for USD/CHF, and I will reiterate my position now because I believe the underlying technical thesis remains completely intact. I rarely change my core outlook, and I only do so when I see a significant shift in the market structure that invalidates my previous assumptions. In this case, I see no such shift, so I am holding firm. I am watching the price action very carefully, and I can confirm that USD/CHF has successfully closed the current trading week at a critical juncture. I am referring specifically to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which is acting as a resistance zone right now. I interpret this close as a sign of strength, and I believe it sets the stage for the next leg higher. I am always looking for confluence in my analysis, and I find it interesting that the next major target at 50% is not just a standard Fibonacci level; I see that it is also reinforced by the presence of the 200-period moving average. I consider this combination to be a powerful magnet for buyers, as it represents both a mathematical retracement and a dynamic trend indicator aligning perfectly

I am also a realist about market movements, and I do not expect the path higher to be a straight line. I anticipate that the price could easily break above the 38.2% level from its current position, but I am prepared for a subsequent pullback or consolidation once it challenges the 50% level. I view any such retreat as a healthy market correction rather than a reversal of the trend. I am not deterred by minor fluctuations, because I am focused on the larger pattern that is unfolding. I believe that the internal wave structure I have been tracking is still incomplete, and I am convinced that its natural conclusion lies higher. Ultimately, I am expecting the pair to make a decisive move toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which I have pegged at 0.7870. I have identified this as my primary target for a reason: I see it as the logical completion point for both the broader corrective phase and the internal pattern I am monitoring. I will continue to monitor the price action against these levels, and I will only adjust my outlook if the data forces me to. Until then, I am sticking to my analysis, and I am patiently waiting for the market to validate my expectations.