EUR/USD H4 Timeframe: EUR/USD's movement on the H4 timeframe indicates a market correction phase following a strong rally. The price structure shows a significant surge, reaching around 1.2080, followed by gradual selling pressure. Since that peak, the price has begun to form a lower high and has slowly declined, reflecting the weakening of its previously dominant bullish momentum. Currently the price is hovering around 1.1770, moving below the 100-day moving average (blue line) and approaching the 200-day moving average (red line). This indicates that short- to medium-term pressure is shifting to the bearish side. The downward slope of the 100-day moving average (MA) also reinforces the indication that the upward momentum has ended and the market is entering a distribution phase, or a deeper correction. The 1.1790–1.1830 area currently serves as the nearest resistance zone. This level previously served as a price equilibrium area and has now become the upper limit of the price movement after the price failed to maintain its position above it. As long as EUR/USD remains below this area, the potential for selling pressure remains open. The price's failure to re-break and maintain above the 100-day moving average (MA) also indicates that buying interest remains relatively limited.
On the downside, the 1.1745 to 1.1729 area is a key support area being tested. If the price consistently breaks through this level, the potential for further decline towards the 1.1700 to 1.1660 area will increase. This level is a historical support zone that previously served as a price rebound point, so the market reaction in this area will significantly determine the future direction. The price movement structure in the last few sessions shows a consolidation pattern with a weakening trend. The relatively small candles and limited movement reflect market conditions awaiting new catalysts. However, the dominance of price positions below both moving averages indicates that the short-term bias remains bearish. Nevertheless, a recovery opportunity remains open if the price can re-break through the 1.1830 resistance area and hold above it. A valid breakout above this level has the potential to change the structure to neutral, even opening the opportunity for an increase towards the 1.1880 to 1.1927 area. Currently, this scenario still requires strong confirmation, given the still-dominant selling pressure. Overall, EUR/USD is in a corrective phase following the previous uptrend, with the trend remaining weak. As long as the price remains below the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) and fails to break through the nearest resistance, bearish pressure is expected to remain dominant. Movement around the current support area is key, as a break below it could accelerate further weakness, while a strong rebound could potentially send the pair back into a broader consolidation phase before determining its next trend direction.
