EUR/USD DAILY CHART ANALYSIS EUR/USD makes a small jump above 1.1800 during Fridays European session, buoyed by the US Dollars continuous weakness. However, the ascent seems to be without a solid base as the market participants keep their guards up ahead of Germanys preliminary February CPI, among others, from several major federal states. Those data may help form the consensus of the Euro area CPI number and, therefore, ramify the ECB policy narrative indirectly. At the moment, the price movement is more indicative of a Dollar story than a clear Euro-driven breakout. On the daily chart, the pair is around 1.1786, still not showing a clear trend but rather a sideways movement. EUR/USD remains above the 55- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages that are closely packed between 1.1770 and 1.1690. The 200-day SMA is still below, around 1.1660, thus reflecting a slightly positive sentiment in the overall technical context. Being able to stay above this complex moving average support indicates that medium-term buyers are still actively buying on the dips. On the other hand, the 55- and 100-day SMA being almost flat shows that the upward momentum has retreated and the market lacks new bullish sentiment. Momentum indicators also reflect the consolidation story. The Relative Strength Index, at its neutral level, is currently barely below the midpoint at 47. Such a position indicates that the momentum is fairly balanced without any significant overbought or oversold conditions being evident. On the other hand, the Average Directional Index has dropped under 20, which indicates that there is hardly any trend. An ADX that is low points to meagre directional strength, and this again confirms that the EUR/USD is simply oscillating in a range as opposed to a sustained breakout being imminent. In other words, the technical aspect shows that a neutral stance is justified with a slight upside bias if the price is maintained above the key moving averages. On the chart, support for the pair can be found at 1.1742, where a horizontal level meets the moving average area in the vicinity. This spot can be regarded as a short-term pivot. If the pair, however, closes visually under 1.1740, the market mood would probably be turned more bearish, with 1.1578 becoming the next downside target. Further weakness could then bring 1.1491 and 1.1469 into focus, levels that previously served as reaction points and may attract renewed buying interest. A deeper decline would also increase the risk of a test of the critical 200-day SMA near 1.1660, a level that many medium-term participants monitor closely. On the bright side, resistance points are located at more distant levels, which highlights the limited immediate upward momentum. The next significant top is at 1.2082, followed by 1.2266 and then 1.2350. These levels set the broad upper limit of the range that has been containing price action since the late January peak. Bulls need a sustained break above 1.2080 to become dominant again, and a stronger uptrend can be expected after that. Until then, rallies could stay measured and carry the risk of fading. Under the surface, EUR/USD is still very much a story of Washington rather than Frankfurt. Investors are persistently setting their expectations about the Federal Reserves policy path to 2026. The Dollar remains highly reactive to the data flow as uncertainty around the timing and size of the rate moves keeps it on edge. Meanwhile, the Euro is without a strong homegrown factor that could bring about a self-sustained breakout. Even with the rise on Friday, EUR/USD is still having problems creating steady upward momentum. The current pattern of short rallies and subsequent quick pullbacks depicts an unstable, multi-day trading scenario. If the Dollar becomes stronger again, particularly if the US Dollar Index retests the 98.00 areaturning the pressure on the pair might be easier. In the end, without a solid foundation above 1.1850 from EUR/USD, the danger of the pair going down again to 1.1740 and maybe even the 200-day SMA is still there.
