DAILY CHART ANALYSIS OF BTCUSD Technical analysis of BTCUSD reveals a comprehensive bearish trend following the major top formation. Price was unable to sustain above the 92000 level, and selling pressure was unleashed with large bearish candles. BTCUSD started to form lower highs and lower lows, which served as the confirmation of a change in market behavior. The market change went from distribution to markdown with the acceleration on the downside. BTCUSD is presently trading significantly below the moving averages, which indicates the sellers are in strong trend control. The big picture stays bearish as the price is under the 80000 resistance. The first major resistance weighs around 71700, which corresponds to the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest swing drop. BTCUSD has responded to that area previously, and the sellers have once more come from the defensive side, showing the presence of supply. The 50% Fibonacci level is approximately 68800 and operates as the mid-range resistance where the price is currently moving around. BTCUSD still denies the moves higher attempts, which means demand is weak. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is around 65700, and the price is now trading in that area. That place is serving as a short-term balance, but it is not strong enough to change the trend. Support is near 63000 and is in line with the recent demand zone as well as the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level, according to the analysis. BTCUSD only once bounced off that support level; however, the subsequent buying did not lead to a trend change. Instead, the price movement was a correction, which implies that the sellers are still in control. There is a more solid support level near 60000, which coincides with the Fibonacci 0% retracement and the bottom of the measured move. BTCUSD might go back to that level in case the consolidation breaks downwards. The way the market behaves around 60000 will determine if continuation or accumulation occurs. Trend structure is still weak as the price is traded below a descending trendline resistance seen from the January high. BTCUSD has been consistently turning down from that dynamic resistance, which establishes the bearish control of market geometry. Each rally up to the resistance is accompanied by smaller candles and the loss of strength. BTCUSD volatility contraction inside the range is an indicator of a pause, not a reversal. The sequence is still pointing to a continuation lower unless a strong close above 71700 occurs. The structure will stay bearish if there is no such break. The moving averages are going down and seem to be acting as layered resistance between 72000 and 80000. BTCUSD is below all the major averages, which indicates a negative momentum environment. After a couple of attempts to pull back the averages, the price was quickly rejected, showing that there is institutional supply. BTCUSD is usually strongly trending when positioned under these averages during macro corrections. The difference between the price and the averages also shows that the market is extended but not yet turning. Bear trends can remain extended for quite some time before the base formation begins. Fibonacci mapping of the entire downgrade shows that sellers have respected each retracement level, almost as if on autopilot, with great accuracy. The 38.2% level at around 65700 brought a momentary halt to the price decline, but the structure was not changed. BTCUSD rejecting the 50% retracement level was a confirmation of the behavior, continuation rather than recovery. The 61.8% level at around 71700 is still the bears main invalidation zone. Only the acceptance above that percentage would indicate the structural transition. Until then, the Fibonacci alignment continues to be supportive of the downside bias. The price action now forms a horizontal consolidation area between 63000 support and 68800 resistance. BTCUSD is setting up a short-term range after an impulsive drop, which not infrequently results in a further expansion phase. The range after a strong drop usually serves as the continuation pattern. Sellers are gradually absorbing demand while still making lower high formation. BTCUSD needs to break out of the range resistance to be able to challenge the bear narrative. On the contrary, the probability of the breakdown toward 60000 will increase if the support is not broken. Momentum indicators remain at a low level, thus reflecting consolidation after the strong selling wave. BTCUSD attempts to produce a bullish reversal pattern, but its not yet a strong signal from a divergence at the price and the indicator. Market participation reveals caution as the size of the candles and the overlapping of the sessions have diminished. Typically, this kind of market behavior is a signal of another directional move that will happen after the liquidity builds. BTCUSD traders might want to observe the structure rather than the indicators because it is the price that is directing sentiment. On the whole, the structure still strongly suggests sellers, as long as BTCUSD continues to trade below 71700 and, even more so, below 68800. The Fibonacci set further confirms the resistance barriers, whereas the support here stays weak around 63000. If the price falls below that level, the way towards 60000 and possibly lower will be brought by a breakdown. A bullish continuation will be put into question only by a price that will be able to hold above the 61.8% retracement. Until then, BTCUSD is just going through a corrective consolidation within a downtrend on a larger scale.
