FX.co ★ EUR/USD

Post Market Analysis – EUR/USD (H4 Timeframe) The EUR/USD pair on the H4 timeframe shows a clear bearish trend structure during the observed period. Price action initially moved in a sideways to slightly bullish phase, but the overall market sentiment gradually shifted to the downside as sellers gained stronger control. The chart includes three moving averages: a short-term moving average (blue), a medium-term moving average (yellow), and a long-term moving average (red), which help identify the direction and strength of the trend. In the earlier section of the chart, the price attempted to push upward and briefly traded above the medium moving average. However, this bullish momentum was not strong enough to sustain a long-term breakout. The market soon began forming lower highs and lower lows, which is a typical indication of a developing bearish trend. The short-term moving average crossed below the medium moving average, confirming the shift in momentum from buyers to sellers. As the trend progressed, the price consistently remained below both the short-term and medium moving averages, while the long-term moving average stayed above the price, acting as dynamic resistance. This alignment of moving averages (short below medium, and medium below long) strongly supports a bearish market structure. A significant bearish impulse move occurred around the beginning of March, where the market produced a strong downward breakout. This move was accompanied by large bearish candles, indicating aggressive selling pressure. After this drop, the market attempted a small retracement toward the short-term moving average, but the pullback was weak and quickly rejected, allowing the downtrend to continue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) also supports the bearish bias. The RSI remained mostly below the neutral 50 level and moved closer to the 30 zone during the stronger downward movements. This indicates increasing bearish momentum, although it has not yet reached extreme oversold levels that could trigger a significant reversal. In conclusion, the overall market structure on the H4 timeframe remains bearish. The alignment of moving averages, consistent lower highs and lower lows, and RSI positioning all confirm the continuation of selling pressure. Unless the price breaks above the medium and long-term moving averages, the probability favors further downside movement in the EUR/USD pair.