FX.co ★ USD/CAD

USD/CAD Analysis March 10 2026 I am transitioning my focus to the North American session to provide a deep-dive analysis of the USD/CAD pair as of Tuesday, March 10, 2026. I see the "Loonie" trading in a high-tension environment, currently quoted at 1.3577 USD/CAD. I have defined the current landscape as a "War of Attrition" between two opposing forces. On one side, I see the US Dollar benefiting from its role as a global safe haven amid the intensified strikes in the Middle East. On the other side, I see the Canadian Dollar receiving massive "petro-support" as WTI Crude Oil hit a multi-year high of $119.54 earlier this week. I interpret the current consolidation at 1.3577 as the market trying to decide which of these two "Safe Haven" narratives is more potent. My Structural Analysis Framework I am primarily using the Daily (D1) chart to evaluate the long-term trend, which I believe remains structurally bullish for USD/CAD as long as the pair holds above the 200-day EMA at 1.3420. I find this timeframe essential because it filters out the extreme noise coming from the volatile oil market. I also use the 4-Hour (H4) chart to monitor the immediate reaction to the 1.3550 support level, where I have noticed significant "Buy the Dip" activity from institutional players throughout the Asia session today. Current Market Price Observations I see the price trading at 1.3577 USD/CAD. I find this level particularly significant because it sits exactly at the 50-day EMA. I have noticed that the pair has been "pinned" to this moving average for the last three sessions. I interpret this as a sign of extreme indecision. If I see a Daily close above 1.3610, I believe we will see a rapid extension toward 1.3750. Conversely, a failure to hold 1.3530 could signal that the surge in oil prices is finally starting to break the US Dollars dominance over the CAD. Recent Highs and Lows I have marked the recent local high at 1.3655 USD/CAD, hit during the peak of the Iranian missile strike news on March 8. On the downside, I identified a major "swing low" at 1.3485 from late February. Looking further back, I see the January 2026 peak of 1.3820 as the ultimate target for Dollar bulls, provided that the Bank of Canada (currently holding at 2.25%) remains more dovish than the US Federal Reserve. Technical Indicator Values I am analyzing the technical data and I see the Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) at 52.4 on the Daily chart. I interpret this as a "neutral pivot" point. I see the MACD signal lines are beginning to flatten out, which I believe indicates that the bullish momentum from February has reached exhaustion. I am specifically using Fibonacci tools to identify the correct entry point. I see the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3550 has acted as a "floor" twice today. I am waiting for a break of this floor to signal to me that the Loonie is ready to reclaim its strength. Current Candle Pattern On the H4 chart, I can see a "Dozi" candle forming right at the current price of 1.3577. I interpret this as a sign of exhaustion among both buyers and sellers. On the Daily chart, I am observing a "Bearish Harami" pattern from Monday’s session, which I believe suggests a short-term correction toward the 1.3500 psychological level is the more likely outcome for the next 48 hours. Sentiment and Correlation I feel that the sentiment is "Conflict-Driven Volatility" as of March 10. I have noted an unusually high correlation of -0.92 between USD/CAD and WTI Crude Oil. I interpret the 13% retracement in oil prices (back to $103) as the reason why the CAD is struggling to gain further ground today. Furthermore, I am watching the Canada Unemployment Rate (currently at 6.5%); since the labor market remains relatively tight, I believe it prevents the Bank of Canada from cutting rates as aggressively as some analysts forecast, which supports the CAD. The Context of the Move I do not believe the stability at 1.3577 will last. I see it as the "calm before the storm." I believe the context of 2026 is one where the US is aggressively protecting its trade interests. I have noted that potential US tariffs remain a "Sword of Damocles" hanging over the Canadian economy. I interpret any move in USD/CAD as being 70% driven by oil headlines and 30% by trade policy rhetoric coming from Washington. Possible Support and Resistance Resistance 1: 1.3610 USD/CAD (Immediate tactical ceiling). Resistance 2: 1.3720 USD/CAD (Major structural resistance from late 2025). Support 1: 1.3530 USD/CAD (The 61.8% Fibonacci level and intraday floor). Support 2: 1.3480 USD/CAD (Recent swing low and major psychological support). My Proposed Trading Setup I am looking to enter a long position only if I see a 4-hour close above 1.3625, targeting the 1.3800 zone. I would place my stop loss at 1.3520 to protect my capital from an oil-driven surge. Alternatively, if I see the price break below 1.3530, I will look for a short-term sell entry targeting 1.3450. I view the current 1.3577 level as too "center-market" for a high-probability trade.