FX.co ★ AUD/USD

I am providing a structural and tactical analysis of the AUD/USD pair for Tuesday, March 10, 2026. I see the "Aussie" currently trading at 0.7079 USD, staging a sharp recovery from the 0.6960 lows seen at the start of the week. I have interpreted the current market behavior as a "Commodity Tug-of-War." While the broader risk-off sentiment from the Middle East conflict initially weighed on the pair, I am now seeing a "Risk-On" rotation triggered by unexpectedly hot Chinese inflation data (1.3% YoY). I believe this is acting as a catalyst for the AUD, as it reinforces the demand for Australian raw materials despite the global geopolitical volatility. My Macro-Structural Analysis I am primarily using the Daily (D1) chart to evaluate the long-term structure, which I believe remains in a broad bullish channel. I find the 0.7000 level essential as it has flipped from a psychological resistance to a major structural support. I also use the 4-Hour (H4) chart to track the "V-shaped" recovery that began on March 9. By looking at the Daily chart, I can see that the Aussie has successfully maintained its position above the 50-day EMA, which I interpret as a sign of underlying trend resilience. Current Market Price Observations I see the price trading at 0.7079 USD. I find this level particularly significant because it is currently testing the upper boundary of the recent consolidation range (0.7000–0.7100). I have noticed that buy-side volume spiked significantly following the release of the Chinese CPI data yesterday. I interpret this move as the market pricing in a "Hawkish RBA" scenario, as domestic inflation remains uncomfortably high at 3.8%. Recent Highs and Lows I have marked the Year-to-Date high at 0.7147 USD, which I see as the primary objective for bulls. On the downside, I identified a critical support cluster between 0.6945 and 0.6960. Looking further back, the January low of 0.6820 remains the ultimate floor for this cycle, but I do not see a return to that level unless there is a significant escalation in the Strait of Hormuz conflict. Tzchnical Indicator Values I am analyzing the technical data and I see the Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) at 58.2 on the Daily chart. I interpret this as a move back into bullish momentum territory. I see the 50-day EMA at 0.6930, which I believe provides a very safe buffer for long positions. I am also monitoring the MACD on the H4 chart. I see a bullish crossover that occurred late yesterday, which I believe confirms that the recent pullback from 0.7100 was a corrective move rather than a trend reversal. Current Candle Pattern On the Daily chart, I see a "Bullish Engulfing" pattern that formed on March 9. I interpret this as a strong signal that the "smart money" is buying the dip. On the H4 chart, I am observing a series of "Higher Lows," which I believe indicates that sellers are losing control and the path of least resistance is currently to the upside. Sentiment and Correlation I feel that the sentiment is "Bullish Divergence" as of March 10. I have noted that while the S&P 500 has been under pressure, the AUD has remained resilient. I interpret this as the market decouple from "General Risk" and focusing on "Commodity Risk." I am also watching the Australia 3-year government bond yield, which has risen to 4.22%. Since the RBA is expected to hike the cash rate further (potentially to 4.10% in May), I believe the carry-trade appeal for the AUD is increasing. The Context of the Move I do not believe the move to 0.7079 is purely speculative. I see it as a reaction to China’s economic re-acceleration. I have noted that the 1.3% Chinese CPI print is the strongest in years, which I interpret as a massive tailwind for Australian iron ore and coal exports. I believe the "Context" of 2026 is one where Australia’s trade surplus will act as a structural shield against the high-interest-rate environment in the US. Possible Support and Resistance Resistance 1: 0.7100 USD (Psychological ceiling and immediate hurdle). Resistance 2: 0.7150 USD (Year-to-date high and major structural pivot). Support 1: 0.7030 USD (Today’s breakout level and immediate floor). Support 2: 0.6960 USD (Recent swing low and critical structural defense). My Proposed Trading Setup I am looking to enter a long position if I see a sustained 4-hour close above 0.7105, targeting the 0.7240 extension. I would place my stop loss at 0.7020 to protect my capital from a sudden US Dollar safe-haven surge. Alternatively, if I see the price reject 0.7100 and form a "Shooting Star" candle, I would consider a short-term scalp targeting 0.7010. I view the "Buy on Dip" strategy as the higher-probability approach in the current environment.