FX.co ★ EUR/USD

I observe that Wednesday’s trading session on the EUR/USD pair closed with a clear bearish candlestick, and I interpret this as a signal that selling pressure remained dominant throughout the session and that the market sentiment still leans toward the downside. I note that the current price is trading around 1.1536, and I continue to monitor the hourly chart closely because I rely heavily on intraday structures to guide my trading decisions. I have mapped out several Fibonacci extension targets on the chart, and I use these levels to estimate where the next potential price movements could unfold. I identified the first downside target at the 161.8 Fibonacci extension near 1.1577, and I recognize that the market has already interacted with this level earlier during the price movement. I also marked the second target at the 261.8 Fibonacci extension around 1.1533, and I see that this level has also been effectively reached, confirming that the bearish momentum has already achieved two of the projected objectives. I now focus my attention on the third Fibonacci extension level, which is the 423.6 target near 1.1463, and I consider this the next key objective for sellers if the bearish momentum continues to develop. I expect that if the selling pressure remains steady and no strong bullish reversal appears, the price could gradually move toward this level, possibly during tomorrow’s trading session. I treat this scenario as my primary expectation because the market structure still suggests that sellers maintain control in the short term. I also remain aware that market conditions can change quickly, so I pay close attention to critical resistance levels that could invalidate the bearish outlook. I specifically monitor the resistance level around 1.1646, because I believe that a decisive breakout above this level would weaken the current bearish scenario and signal that buyers are regaining strength. I understand that if such a breakout occurs, the downside projection toward 1.1463 would likely be cancelled, and I would then expect the market to form new bullish targets instead. I therefore continue to observe price behavior carefully while preparing to adjust my strategy depending on how the market reacts around these key technical levels.

I believe the weekly chart of EUR/USD does not offer much value for my trading approach because I focus mainly on short-term opportunities, and I feel that analyzing higher timeframes like the weekly chart is more appropriate for traders who prefer long-term or medium-term strategies rather than intraday positioning. I concentrate primarily on the H1 chart because it provides the structure and momentum shifts that I rely on for decision-making, and I noticed that EUR/USD has already reached the main target around 1.1570, which confirms that the bullish impulse managed to achieve its immediate objective. I admire the traders who stayed confident during the sharp upward spike and managed to hold their positions until the target was fully reached, but I personally decided to close my short positions slightly earlier because I preferred to avoid unnecessary exposure and protect the profits I had already secured. I now think the market has entered a phase where it is necessary to reassess potential entries because I do not currently see any clear chart formations that suggest a sustainable bullish continuation. I observe that the pair is forming a relatively stable consolidation zone, and I consider this structure as a potential setup for a corrective movement toward the 1.1585 area before sellers attempt to regain control of the market again. I do not expect the pair to show any strong bullish expansion beyond that level because I believe the broader sentiment still favors the U.S. dollar, especially given the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the general demand for the dollar during uncertain global conditions. I plan to monitor tomorrow’s price action carefully because I want to identify an optimal level where I can open new short positions with controlled risk. I also believe that a modest pullback could appear before sellers step in again, and I expect that once the correction completes, the pair could gradually move downward toward the 1.1525 area. I acknowledge that the possibility of a move toward 1.1630 technically exists and should not be completely ruled out, but I personally consider that scenario less probable in the near term, and I remain focused on the likelihood that lower targets will be tested before any significant upward continuation can develop.