FX.co ★ EUR/USD

I observed that all my earlier expectations regarding the EUR/USD movement were fulfilled, and I carefully reviewed the recent price action to reassess the current market outlook. I noticed that despite the decline reaching my projected areas, I still do not see any clear bullish reversal pattern forming on the chart, which makes me cautious about expecting an immediate upward correction. I also paid close attention to the weekly closing structure, and I observed that last week ended with a strong bearish candlestick, which in my view reinforces the existing downward pressure and signals that sellers remain firmly in control of the market. I therefore believe that the bearish momentum could continue into the beginning of the new trading week, and I expect Monday to potentially extend the downward movement if the current sentiment remains unchanged. I also considered the possibility that the price could eventually reach the so-called “figure 7” area, and I believe such a move is technically achievable, although I personally expect that reaching that level would likely require more than a single trading week due to the distance involved and the likelihood of intermediate corrections. I noted that the EUR/USD pair is currently trading around 1.1416, and I used the four-hour timeframe to identify several Fibonacci expansion targets that help outline the potential continuation of the bearish trend. I identified the first downside objective at the 161.8% Fibonacci expansion level around 1.1400, and I observed that the market has already managed to reach this target, confirming that sellers are actively following through with the projected move. I also focused on the second Fibonacci expansion level at 261.8%, which I calculated to be around 1.1243, and I now consider this level to be the next important bearish objective if the decline continues. I further examined the extended projection and identified a third potential target at the 423.6% Fibonacci level near 1.0986, and I believe that reaching this deeper level would require sustained bearish momentum and continued dollar strength over a longer period of time.

I observed that the EUR/USD pair experienced a sharp and decisive decline last week, and I interpreted this movement as a continuation of the broader bearish momentum that had already been building in the market. I expected that the following trading week might show slightly reduced volatility compared to the previous one, mainly because I noticed that the price is now approaching an important technical support area located around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.1370 on the weekly timeframe. I considered this level to be particularly significant because I often rely on Fibonacci retracement zones to identify potential reaction points where price behavior may temporarily stabilize or reverse. I also noted that the earlier consolidation below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-period moving average clearly signaled that bearish pressure was strengthening, and I interpreted this technical structure as confirmation that the EUR/USD pair was preparing for another leg lower. I identified the 38.2% Fibonacci level as the immediate downside target, and I believed that once sellers gained control below the previous support area, the path toward this level became relatively clear. I now see that the ongoing decline in the pair continues to support my earlier expectations, and I remain confident that the market will likely test the 1.1370 area in the coming days. I believe that the current market sentiment still favors the bears, and I expect that sellers will have little difficulty pushing the price toward this key support zone if the momentum remains intact. I also recognize that this level could become an important turning point, and I anticipate that once the price reaches this support, buyers may begin to show interest and attempt to reverse the market direction. I therefore expect that a bullish correction could develop from this area, and I see the 14.6% Fibonacci level as the most optimistic upside target if a rebound begins, even though this target remains quite far from the current price and would require sustained buying pressure to reach.