FX.co ★ USD/JPY

Hello traders, The USD/JPY currency pair - W1 chart. The wave structure is forming its upward order, the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone and above its signal line. I still expect the price to aim for a retest of the 2024 high, breaking above the 161.86 level. However, this has not been achieved yet, as we saw a pullback after slightly surpassing the 2025 high. The retracement went down to the 38.2 level on the Fibonacci correction grid applied to the rise. There was a signal for an upward movement from the CCI indicator - a bullish convergence that worked perfectly. We updated the high of this year, and there is little doubt that the price will move towards the indicated top. Although there is a bearish divergence on the MACD indicator being used. I think they will do the following - provide some pullback and its development to make everyone believe that the divergence will work deeply and that it is a reversal of the uptrend. Then, when a sufficient number of sellers gather, the decline will stop, and a reversal will occur with a rise towards the 2024 high. The 2024 high is not only the high of that year but also the historical high for the entire history that can be seen on the terminal. Although it is said that Japan should not weaken its currency at all, and they are preparing to resist it if the weakening trend continues. It may be worth considering working downwards to try to catch a correction. Working upwards is already quite dangerous due to this divergence, but working downwards is premature because the horizontal support level at 157.55 is obstructing the path, which has repeatedly shown to be effective and has led to upward rebounds. Most likely, the scenario will be as follows - a downward movement with a break of the 157.55 support level, then working out the divergence at the low of the last downward wave that occurred at the beginning of the year. And from there, the price will most likely be picked up and dragged back to the very top.