EUR/USD Timeframe H1: The EUR/USD pair's movement on the H1 timeframe shows a trend structure that remains generally bullish, although in the latest phase, momentum has begun to weaken, leading to short-term consolidation. This is reflected in the price remaining above the 200-day Moving Average (red line), while the 100-day Moving Average (blue line) is above the 200-day MA, which served as a key support during the previous upward phase. The upward slopes of both MAs indicate that the major trend has not completely changed, although its strength is beginning to wane. In the previous phase, the price exhibited a fairly steady upward movement with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing buyer dominance. This rise led the price to break through several key resistance levels, eventually reaching a peak around 1.1840–1.1850. This level now serves as a key resistance level that has proven quite strong, as after reaching it, the price experienced significant rejection and quickly reversed downwards. This reaction indicates significant selling pressure in the area, likely stemming from profit-taking or the entry of new sellers. Following the rejection of this resistance, the price experienced a sharp correction, briefly breaking below the 100-day moving average (MA), even approaching the 200-day moving average (MA) before finally rising again. However, the rebound failed to bring the price back to its previous peak, instead remaining in the 1.1770–1.1790 range. This movement formed a consolidation phase, indicating short-term directional uncertainty, with buyer and seller forces relatively balanced.
In terms of horizontal support and resistance, there are several key levels to consider. The nearest resistance lies around 1.1790 to 1.1815, which currently serves as the upper limit of the sideways movement. If the price manages to break through this area strongly, there is an opportunity to retest the major resistance at 1.1840. However, as long as the price remains below this zone, consolidation or even further correction remains likely. On the support side, the 1.1770 area serves as a minor support area that is currently being repeatedly tested. If this level is breached, the potential for a decline towards the next support area around 1.1700 will increase. This level is quite crucial because it previously served as a breakout area and now has the potential to become a demand zone. Below it, there is further support around 1.1640 and 1.1580, which are areas of the previous price structure and are close to the 200-day moving average (MA), thus having strong technical significance. The price's interaction with the 100-day moving average (MA) is key in determining short-term direction. Currently, the price is moving very close to the 100-day moving average (MA), reflecting a neutral trend. If the price is able to stay above the 100-day moving average and form a higher low, the bullish trend remains viable. Conversely, if the price breaks through the 100-day moving average and approaches the 200-day moving average (MA) with consistent pressure, the likelihood of a bearish trend structure shift increases. Overall, EUR/USD remains structurally bullish but is undergoing a consolidation phase after being rejected from strong resistance. The 1.1840 area remains key to confirming the continuation of the uptrend, while the 1.1700 area is a crucial boundary to maintain a bullish bias. Price movements over the next few sessions will be heavily influenced by how the market reacts to these two levels, determining whether the uptrend will continue or reverse into a deeper correction.
