EUR/USD Timeframe H4: The EUR/USD movement on the H4 timeframe shows interesting trend dynamics, with the market previously in a fairly clear bearish phase before finally reversing and entering a relatively strong bullish phase. This is evident from the position of the 100 Moving Average (blue line), which was previously below the 200 Moving Average (red line), then gradually rising and finally crossing above the 200 MA. This crossover signaled an early trend change from bearish to bullish, which was then confirmed by the price movement, which began to form a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The price increase that occurred after this reversal phase was quite impulsive, especially when the price broke through the key resistance area around 1.1640 to 1.1700. This breakout was a crucial point that significantly changed the market structure, as the price continued to rise until it reached the 1.1790 area and even touched the 1.1840 area. This area now serves as a very important key resistance area, as it has shown a strong rejection reaction, marked by the emergence of a long upper wick and subsequent correction. Under current conditions, the price appears to be consolidating below this resistance, specifically around 1.1770 to 1.1790. This movement indicates a short-term distribution phase, where market participants are starting to hold positions while awaiting new catalysts. However, the price remains above the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs), indicating that the primary bias remains bullish, with both MAs now serving as fairly solid dynamic support.
Looking at the horizontal support and resistance structure, several key levels are of primary concern. The nearest resistance is located at 1.1790, while the next strong resistance is around 1.1840. A valid breakout above these levels would open the opportunity for a continuation of the uptrend with potential higher targets. However, as long as the price remains below this zone, sideways movement or a mild correction remains a realistic scenario. On the other hand, the nearest support is around 1.1700, which was previously an important breakout area. This level plays a crucial role in supporting the current bullish trend. If the price declines and tests this area, buyer reaction in this zone will significantly determine whether the uptrend can continue. Below, there is further support at 1.1640, which is adjacent to the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs), making it a strong confluence area. A break below this area would signal a more significant weakening of the trend. Further down, the 1.1580 and 1.1520 levels serve as subsequent support levels, reflecting the previous price structure. These areas could become targets for a deeper correction if selling pressure increases. However, as long as the price remains above the 200-day moving average (MA), the overall bullish structure can be maintained. The current interaction between price and both moving averages indicates that the 100-day moving average (MA) is starting to move away from the 200-day moving average (MA) upward, indicating increasing bullish momentum. However, the price movement starting to level off near resistance indicates potential short-term trend exhaustion. Therefore, confirmation of a breakout or rejection at the resistance area will be a determining factor in the future direction. Overall, EUR/USD is in a healthy bullish trend on the H4 timeframe after a bearish reversal. Although consolidation is currently occurring near key resistance, the trend structure still supports continued upside as long as key support remains intact. Price reactions to the 1.1790 and 1.1840 areas will determine whether the market will continue its uptrend or enter a deeper correction phase before resuming its next move.
