FX.co ★ USD/CHF

USD/CHF H1 Timeframe: The USD/CHF chart on the H1 timeframe shows a fairly consistent downtrend, judging by the price structure and the position of the two main moving averages, the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 200-day moving average (MA). The 100-day moving average (MA) (usually more responsive to price movements) is below the 200-day moving average (MA) after a recent bearish crossover, indicating that selling pressure continues to dominate the medium- to long-term momentum. The downward slopes of both MAs reinforce the indication that this downtrend is not merely a temporary correction, but rather part of a broader bearish structure. Since the beginning of the period, price movement has experienced strong rejection around the 0.7980–0.8010 area, which now serves as major resistance. This area was previously a distribution zone before the sharp price decline, making it technically significant. When the price attempted to re-approach this zone, selling pressure re-emerged, confirming that market participants still consider this level an attractive area for selling. Furthermore, there is intermediate resistance around 0.7910–0.7930, which served as a consolidation area before a further breakdown occurred. This level now has the potential to become dynamic resistance if the price pulls back. On the downside, the nearest support is seen around 0.7770–0.7780, which has been tested several times and has been able to withstand further declines in the short term. The price reaction in this area indicates buying interest, although it is not yet strong enough to reverse the overall trend. If this support is breached with significant pressure, the opportunity for further decline to lower levels will increase. Meanwhile, there is minor support around 0.7800, which is currently being tested as a narrow consolidation area. The sideways movement in this zone reflects a temporary equilibrium phase between buyers and sellers.

The interaction of price with the 100-day moving average (MA) is also an important element in this analysis. Each time the price attempts to rise near the 100-day moving average (MA), there is a fairly consistent rejection, indicating that this line is functioning as dynamic resistance. As long as the price remains below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, the technical bias remains bearish. The new trend change scenario will gain stronger validity if the price manages to break through and maintain above the 100-day moving average, followed by a breakout of the 200-day moving average, which is currently higher and moving more slowly. The lower high and lower low structure formed throughout the period also reinforces the downtrend narrative. Although there have been several retracements or upward corrections, these gains have been relatively limited and always followed by renewed selling pressure. This indicates that market participants are still using the rise as an opportunity to enter short positions, rather than as the beginning of a trend reversal. Taking all these technical factors into account, USD/CHF currently remains under bearish pressure, with potential further movement largely dependent on the price's reaction to the 0.7770 support and 0.7830–0.7850 resistance areas in the short term. As long as the price remains below both major moving averages and fails to break through key resistance, a downtrend remains the more likely scenario than a potential reversal.