FX.co ★ CL/Crude Oil

Technical and Fundamental Aspects of Crude Oil The United States has blocked Iranian seaports as a retaliatory measure against Tehran for closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage through which nearly 20% of the world's energy supply flows daily. The Wall Street Journal report also indicated that President Trump has chosen to continue compressing Iran's economy and limiting its oil exports by preventing ships from entering and exiting Iranian ports, rather than resuming direct military operations. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more severe the global supply crisis becomes, keeping energy prices elevated across all major benchmarks. Traders are increasingly pricing in a protracted disruption scenario, with no clear diplomatic breakthrough on the horizon. In a significant development, the United Arab Emirates announced its decision to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+, aiming to focus on its "national interests." This move comes as the Middle East war triggers a global energy shock, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile oil market. The UAE's departure could signal further fragmentation within the producer group, potentially leading to increased output competition or reduced coordination on supply management. Crude oil is currently trading at $103.40, extending strong bullish momentum amid ongoing supply concerns, with the price surging sharply over recent sessions on both H4 and H1 timeframes. On the H4 chart, a clear demand zone emerges around the $98.00 to $99.50 area, where aggressive buying interest previously absorbed selling pressure and fueled the latest rally. This zone aligns with a base formation established before the impulsive upside move, acting as a major accumulation region for institutional buyers. A secondary demand area sits near $96.50 to $97.80, providing deeper support should a retracement occur. On the supply side, the H4 chart shows a prominent supply zone between $104.50 and $106.00, where previous rallies stalled with strong selling tails, marking a potential distribution area that could cap further advances in the near term. The 20 SMA on H4 is sloping steeply upward and trading well below the current price near $101.20, confirming a robust short-term bullish bias and serving as dynamic support during minor pullbacks. The 50 SMA follows closely behind on H4 at approximately $99.80, also pointing higher but with a slightly flatter angle, providing additional confluence for trend continuation. Price remains decisively above both moving averages, with the 20 SMA acting as a trailing support that buyers have successfully defended on recent dips. Zooming into the H1 timeframe reveals finer granularity. Immediate demand lies at $101.80 to $102.50, formed from a recent consolidation base that supported the push toward current levels, while a fresh intraday supply zone appears around $104.00 to $104.80, evident from hesitation candles and rejection patterns. The 20 SMA on H1 sits near $102.40 while the 50 SMA resides at approximately $101.50, both sloping upward with price trading comfortably above them, confirming short-term bullish momentum. Key support rests at the H1 demand zone between $101.80 and $102.50, with the 20 SMA at $102.40 providing immediate dynamic reinforcement. A decisive break below $101.80 would expose the next support layer near $100.50, followed by the H4 demand zone at $99.50 and then the $98.00 level. Additional support resides at $97.50 and $96.50 should selling pressure intensify. On the upside, the H1 supply zone at $104.00 to $104.80 represents the immediate resistance barrier, with the psychological $105.00 level adding overhead pressure. A sustained daily close above $104.80 would target $106.00 as the next resistance layer, followed by the H4 supply zone at $107.50 and then the $108.00 psychological level. Intermediate resistance sits at $105.50 and $106.50. The most probable scenario favors continued upside pressure as long as the price remains above the $101.80 to $102.50 demand zone. A sustained break above $104.80 would confirm bullish continuation toward $106.00 and then $107.50. Conversely, a breakdown below $101.80 would shift the short-term bias from bullish to neutral, exposing $100.50 and then the H4 demand zone at $99.50.