FX.co ★ USD/JPY

I’m looking at the current USD/JPY quote of 157.87, and I can see that the pair is moving upward quite briskly, which immediately catches my attention. I’m applying my wave-based perspective on the daily chart, and I notice that the 100 moving average is trending upward at a modest angle of about five degrees, which I interpret as a sign that the intraweek sentiment remains favorable for buyers. I also observe that the 18 moving average is positioned above the key moving average, and I take this as confirmation of bullish sentiment during the week, although I can’t ignore that its tail has begun to slope downward. I interpret that downward lean as a signal that bearish pressure has started to emerge intraday, and I feel that sellers are beginning to exert some control in shorter time frames. I continue to assess the Ichimoku Cloud, and I see that it currently has almost no body, which I read as a sign of weak equilibrium or low structural support in the trend. I recognize that the market previously completed a fairly solid bullish wave with all three sub-waves clearly visible, and I understand that a correction followed, although I note that it was shallow and never fully developed before buyers stepped back in

I reflect on last week’s price action, and I remember how the price approached the key moving average from below and stalled, which led me to believe that upward movement might be limited. I admit that I initially assumed we wouldn’t break higher, but I now see that the market proved otherwise. I observe that yesterday’s candlestick managed to break through the key moving average from the bottom up, and I interpret that breakout as a meaningful bullish signal. I also note that today’s candlestick is holding above that level, and I take that as confirmation that the breakout is being accepted by the market, at least for now. I consider the implications of this development, and I identify the next upside target as a test of the 18 moving average at 158.65. I remain aware that while the broader structure still leans bullish, I need to stay cautious because of the emerging intraday bearish signals, and I understand that the market could still shift if momentum weakens.