On the H1 timeframe, the 200 SMA line sits at 185.50, representing a major resistance ceiling well above current prices, while the 50 SMA line is positioned at 184.10, acting as dynamic resistance overhead. On the H4 chart, the 200 SMA line resides at 184.45, while the 50 SMA line is at 184.35, creating a tight moving average cluster between 184.35 and 184.45. The current price of 183.20 trades below all four moving averages, indicating strong bearish momentum in the near term. The clustered SMA resistance zone spanning 184.10 to 185.50 represents the significant overhead barrier that buyers must overcome to reverse the downtrend. Support occupies the 182.80 to 183.20 band, encompassing the current price area and the immediate downside cushion. Secondary support resides at 182.00 to 182.30, marking an intermediate buffer zone before deeper demand enters. Tertiary support sits at 181.20 to 181.50, representing a significant demand area from earlier trading sessions. Additional support levels include 180.50 to 180.80, 180.00 to 180.20 (psychological round number zone), and 179.30 to 179.50 (multi-month low). The key resistance areas are outlined in detail as follows. Primary resistance occupies the 184.10 to 184.45 band, representing the convergence of the H1 50 SMA, H4 200 SMA, and H4 50 SMA, creating a powerful triple moving average cluster. Secondary resistance resides at 185.00 to 185.20, marking a psychological barrier and recent breakdown point. Tertiary resistance sits at 185.50 to 185.80, aligning with the H1 200 SMA and representing the major upside ceiling. Additional resistance levels include 186.00 to 186.20, 186.50 to 186.70, and 187.00 to 187.20 (late April highs).
The Japanese yen held steady among major currencies due to suspected intervention by authorities last week, keeping market trading cautious. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that Japan was prepared to take action against speculative foreign exchange fluctuations to limit the yen's weakening. Commerzbank's Volkmar Bauer noted that after a brief surge of USD/JPY to 160.72, authorities appeared to intervene near the 157.00 level. Tokyo inflation data revealed that overall gains were driven entirely by energy, while core inflation fell to a one-year low. The bank warned that conflict-related sentiment could keep core inflation subdued, reducing the likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike and putting pressure on the yen. Simultaneously, the euro/yen exchange rate declined as escalating Middle East tensions pressured the euro. These tensions have dampened risk appetite and threatened the four-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. US forces repelled an Iranian attack while escorting two US-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian drones reportedly attacking the UAE port of Fujairah. Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that a new pattern is taking shape in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that maintaining the status quo is unacceptable to the United States and "we haven't even started yet." The additional resistance levels at 186.00 to 186.20, 186.50 to 186.70, and 187.00 to 187.20 represent the upper boundaries of the broader trading range. The most probable scenario is continued bearish pressure toward the 182.80 to 183.20 support band, as escalating Middle East tensions favor safe-haven currencies like the yen. The intervention by Japanese authorities has provided stability for the yen, while the euro faces headwinds from geopolitical uncertainty. However, the Bank of Japan's reduced likelihood of rate hikes due to subdued core inflation could limit the yen's upside potential. A break below 182.80 would likely accelerate selling toward 182.00 and ultimately 181.20. Conversely, any unexpected de-escalation in Middle East hostilities could trigger a short-covering rally toward the 184.10 to 184.45 triple SMA cluster. The 185.00 level serves as a key psychological barrier, with the 185.50 to 185.80 zone representing the ultimate upside ceiling.
