FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold Tuesday was a quiet day for gold, which consolidated within Monday's range. This comes after Monday's bearish continuation signal, which caused a fresh retracement low of $4,501. The day's lower daily high of $4,639 demonstrated resistance around the declining 10-day moving average prior to the collapse. The fact that it was the second day of a successful test of resistance close to the 10-day average indicates that the price of gold is still under pressure to decline. It demonstrates that merchants are still in charge. As a result, it is expected that the bearish slide will continue in the direction of lower possible support zones. Thus, this short-term consolidation indicates a respite in the current bearish retracement phase. The crucial lower target range is about between $4,402 and $4,295. The rising 200-day moving average marks the end of the price range, which starts with the spike low from early February. However, the 200-day line has more weight now that it is in line with the internal uptrend line. Another important price range to take into consideration if approached is the starting point of the rising bearish wedge formation, which is close to $4,305. Price reactions will be continuously monitored in the layered demand zone created by these overlapping support systems. The lower swing high of $4,660 on Friday and the declining 20-day moving average near $4,702 are important short-term resistance points. As a result, it is expected that short-term strength will face opposition and result in additional weakening, at least until lower targets are reached. The overall bias stays in line with the previously mentioned downside targets as long as overhead resistance keeps rallies in check. The 200-day moving average is getting closer to confluence with the midline of a sizable rising trend channel in addition to the negative factors mentioned above. While there was a bearish reaction from the top of the channel during the recent gain, the price zone around the midline was last identified during the bearish correction in March. This change from upper-channel rejection to mid-channel alignment indicates a trend structure changeover.

Gold For the second day in a row, gold (XAU/USD) shows some follow-through positive traction on Wednesday and continues to rise from a bottom of more than a month, which was reached at the beginning of this week at almost $4,500. Amidst the euphoria surrounding a possible peace deal between the US and Iran, the US dollar (USD) declines overall, supporting the commodity. Additionally, declining crude oil prices allay worries about inflation and reduce expectations of a more aggressive US Federal Reserve (Fed), which is thought to be another advantage for the unyielding yellow metal. The US military's effort to direct commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, known as "Project Freedom," will be temporarily halted in order to see if a deal with Iran can be reached, US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday. Significant work has been made toward a comprehensive and final agreement with Iranian authorities, Trump noted in a post on Truth Social. This comes after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated yesterday that the US-Iran ceasefire is in place for the time being and that the US was not looking to raise tensions with Iran. Additionally, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared the end of the US-led "Operation Epic Fury," which was initiated against Iran on February 28 in collaboration with Israel. Technically speaking, the XAU/USD bulls are favored by this week's positive rebound from the $4,500 mark, or the area of the 50% retracement level of the March-April climb, and a following strength beyond the $4,600 round figure. At $4,651.69, the precious metal is getting closer to the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which now serves as the first obstacle. In the meantime, the topside position is supported by momentum indicators. In actuality, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 59, indicating conditions that are firm but not yet overbought. Additionally, as the XAU/USD pair battles overhead supply, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram continues to rise and remain positive, suggesting that bullish pressure is strengthening. If sellers gain momentum, deeper pullbacks are anticipated to find demand around the 50.0% retracement near $4,495.62 and later the 61.8% level around $4,402.41. On the downside, initial support is indicated at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,588.83. The positive outlook will be negated, and the near-term bias will return to favoring the XAU/USD bearish if there is a strong breach below the latter.