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Trader Journals:::2026-05-06T05:55:59

Bitcoin/BTCUSD forecasts

BITCOIN Daily Timeframe

Bitcoin/BTCUSD forecasts

The price movement of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe shows a significant change in market structure after experiencing strong bearish pressure earlier in the year. Technical analysis using the Moving Average 100 (MA 100) and Moving Average 200 (MA 200) indicators, combined with observations of horizontal support and resistance lines, indicates that Bitcoin is in a transitional phase towards a more stable uptrend recovery. In the initial phase of the movement, the price of Bitcoin was seen below the MA 100 and MA 200 with both moving averages sharply declining. This condition reflects strong seller dominance, where each price increase is corrective before experiencing selling pressure again. The aggressive decline led the price to form a swing low around the 6,500–6,600 area, which then became a crucial point for market bottom formation. This area serves as a major support due to the significant buying reaction that halted the previous bearish momentum. After forming a relatively long accumulation phase, Bitcoin began to show a change in the character of price movement. Daily candles started forming higher lows gradually, indicating weakening selling pressure. The price then successfully broke above the MA 100, signaling the beginning of bullish momentum development. This breakout is validated by the price consistency staying above the MA 100 without significant downward movement. The MA 100, which previously acted as dynamic resistance, now transitions to dynamic support. The stable price position above this line indicates that buyers are gaining control of the medium-term market structure. Meanwhile, the MA 200 is still above the price and moving downwards, indicating that the long-term bullish trend is not fully confirmed yet. However, the decreasing distance between the price and the MA 200 shows increasing buying pressure, opening up the possibility of a larger reversal phase if a strong breakout occurs. On the horizontal support side, the 7,800–7,500 area is the nearest crucial support currently. This zone previously served as consolidation resistance and now acts as a buyer defense area. As long as the price holds above this level, the bullish structure remains intact. The next support is around 7,300 to 7,000, which was the price equilibrium area during the previous accumulation phase. A decline towards this area can still be considered a healthy correction as long as it is not followed by a strong breakdown below it. The major support remains in the range of 6,500, which was the previous trend reversal base. This level serves as the main boundary between a bullish recovery scenario and the possibility of returning to a long-term bearish trend. On the resistance side, the 8,150–8,450 area is a crucial zone currently being tested by the price. This area coincides with horizontal resistance and approaches the MA 200, making it a strong technical barrier. The slowing price reaction in this zone indicates profit-taking actions from market participants who previously bought in the lower area. If Bitcoin manages to break above this resistance with strong volume and momentum, the market structure has the potential to shift more broadly towards bullish. The next resistance is in the 8,950 to 9,300 area, which is a historical supply zone. A breakout above this area will confirm a long-term trend change and open up opportunities for further increases towards higher psychological levels. The current price action structure shows a gradual upward pattern with clearer higher highs and higher lows. The bullish momentum appears healthy as price increases do not occur vertically but through repeated consolidation phases. Such patterns generally reflect more stable institutional accumulation compared to short-term speculative spikes. The interaction of price with the MA 100 is also a significant signal. Each correction approaching this moving average tends to be met with new buying, indicating that market participants are using this area as a strategic entry point. As long as the price remains above the MA 100 and continues to approach the MA 200, the probability of a golden cross in the future increases. Overall, the technical condition of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe is currently in a developing bullish recovery phase. The major bearish trend is losing momentum, while buyers are slowly building a new dominance. Although the main resistance remains a challenge, the strengthening price structure, MA 100 support as dynamic support, and consistent formation of higher lows indicate that Bitcoin has the potential to continue its rise if it can maintain stability above key support areas and convincingly break major resistance levels.
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