FX.co ★ USD/CAD

USD/CAD is presently trading near the 1.3620 level. On the H1 chart, the 200 SMA line rests at 1.3632, functioning as an immediate overhead barrier just above current valuations, whilst the 50 SMA line sits at 1.3610, offering nearby dynamic protection beneath. On the H4 timeframe, the 200 SMA line resides at 1.3760, representing a more distant resistance zone further aloft, whereas the 50 SMA line is positioned at 1.3630, aligning nearly perfectly with the H1 200 SMA at 1.3632. This configuration produces a double-moving-average convergence at the 1.3630 to 1.3632 area, bestowing exceptional technical significance upon this resistance cluster. The present price of 1.3620 trades fractionally beneath the clustered SMA resistance yet remains above the H1 50 SMA at 1.3610, indicating a compressed trading range with bearish undertones. Current support occupies the 1.3600, encompassing the H1 50 SMA level and the immediate downside cushion. Secondary support resides at 1.3500 to 1.3520, representing the solid low range that analysts are actively targeting. Additional support includes 1.3450 to 1.3470 and 1.3400 to 1.3410 as deeper demand zones. The key resistance areas are outlined as follows. Immediate resistance occupies the 1.3625 to 1.3635 band, representing the convergence of the H1 200 SMA and H4 50 SMA, where the greenback failed to break above during yesterday's modest rebound. Secondary resistance resides at 1.3720 to 1.3730, marking the threshold where the dollar must re-establish itself to demonstrate genuine technical strength. Additional resistance includes 1.3750 to 1.3760 and 1.3800 to 1.3810 as upper supply zones. Price dynamics reveal that the dollar's minor rebound remains a technical selling opportunity, with the failure to surpass the 1.3625 to 1.3630 resistance yesterday reinforcing the bearish outlook. So long as USD/CAD remains beneath the 1.3625 to 1.3635 resistance cluster, the bearish near-term configuration persists, with analysts anticipating a test of the 1.3500 to 1.3520 support zone.

The Canadian dollar has so far not benefited significantly from the surge in crude oil prices during the US-Iran conflict, meaning a resolution to the war could bring about meaningful change for the currency. Lower energy prices may only affect Canadian dollar sentiment if oil prices continue to fall, as this would offset market concerns about the risk of tightening Bank of Canada policy in the near future, especially as inflationary pressures continue to rise. Later this afternoon, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Lem and Senior Vice President Rogers will return to the Capitol to brief the Senate Banking Committee on the economy and prospects. Their testimony would broadly reflect comments made earlier this week to the House of Commons Finance Committee. Analysts note that the short-term downward trend in the spot market remains intact, and the trend dynamics of the US dollar stay bearish. The greenback failed to break above the minor rebound resistance at 1.3625 to 1.3630 yesterday, and the currency pair needs to reclaim the 1.3720 level to show real technical strength. The dollar's modest rebound continues to represent a technical selling point, with analysts maintaining their outlook for a test of the solid support in the 1.3500 low range. Additional resistance levels at 1.3750 to 1.3760 and 1.3800 to 1.3810 represent the upper boundaries of the broader trading range. The most probable scenario is continued bearish pressure targeting the 1.3500 to 1.3520 support zone, as the dollar's minor rebound remains a technical selling point and the trend dynamics of the US dollar stay bearish. The failure to break above 1.3625 to 1.3630 yesterday reinforces the selling sentiment.