Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds Bullish Bias Above $4,700 as Peace Hopes Weaken Dollar but NFP Risk Looms Gold remains firmly supported near its recent two-week high, with XAU/USD holding a constructive tone as traders balance Middle East tensions against renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal. The key driver is not simply safe-haven demand; it is the way falling crude oil prices are easing inflation fears and reducing pressure for a more hawkish Federal Reserve. That softer inflation narrative is keeping the US Dollar from gaining strongly, which gives bullion room to stay bid. The latest Strait of Hormuz developments keep the market nervous, but investors appear to believe the ceasefire framework is not fully broken. US forces targeted Iranian military facilities, while Iran accused Washington of violating the ceasefire, yet President Donald Trump insisted that the ceasefire remains in place. This mixed situation is important for gold because it creates uncertainty without fully reviving panic-driven dollar demand. In other words, geopolitical risk is still supportive, but the peace-deal hope is preventing oil from exploding higher. Technically, gold bulls still have the upper hand while price holds above the $4,700 region. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $4,703.51 has now turned into immediate support, and the metal is also trading above the 200-period SMA around $4,665.16. That combination gives the current recovery a stronger base. As long as price remains above these levels, dips are likely to look corrective rather than bearish. Momentum also supports the bullish case, though not aggressively. RSI near 64.24 shows healthy buying pressure without being deeply overbought, while MACD remains positive around 6.13. This suggests upside momentum is still active, but the market may not move in a straight line before the US jobs data. If buyers keep control, the next major resistance is the swing-anchor area near $4,891.35, which could become the next upside target. On the downside, a break below $4,703.51 would reduce short-term confidence and expose the 200-period SMA near $4,665.16. If that fails, deeper retracement levels at $4,587.31 and $4,493.39 would come into focus. These levels matter because a stronger-than-expected NFP report could lift the Dollar and Treasury yields, putting pressure on non-yielding gold. Overall, gold remains bullish above $4,700, supported by softer oil, restrained Dollar strength, and constructive technical momentum. Still, the NFP report is the main risk event. A weak jobs number could push XAU/USD toward $4,891, while strong employment and wage data may trigger profit-taking. For now, buyers remain in control, but confirmation above the recent high is still needed for the next clean bullish extension.
