FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

XAU/USD is currently changing hands near 4,740, stepping back from Thursday's two-week peak of 4,764. On the H1 chart, the 200 SMA sits at 4,622, acting as a safety net underneath, while the 50 SMA resides at 4,710, offering nearby cushioning. Moving to the H4 timeframe, the 200 SMA is parked at 4,610, serving as a deeper long-term demand zone, while the 50 SMA rests at 4,622, perfectly aligned with the H1 200 SMA. This rare double-moving-average convergence at 4,622 gives this support area exceptional technical weight. The current price of 4,740 floats comfortably above all four moving averages, signaling that bulls remain in control, with the SMA cluster spanning 4,622 to 4,710 acting as a rock-solid foundation beneath the market. Now, let's explore the distinct support and resistance zones independent of the moving averages. On the downside, primary support awaits at 4,695 to 4,710, where the H1 50 SMA lives. Secondary support sits at 4,622 to 4,635, marking the convergence of the H1 200 SMA and H4 50 SMA. Tertiary support lies at 4,509 to 4,530, a significant demand pocket. Additional safety nets include 4,450 to 4,470, 4,380 to 4,400, and the critical horizontal floor at 4,350 to 4,370. On the upside, primary resistance stands at 4,764 to 4,780, the recently tested two-week peak. Secondary resistance lives at 4,820 to 4,840, an intermediate barrier. Tertiary resistance awaits at 4,882 to 4,900, a major supply zone. Beyond that, psychological hurdles include 4,950 to 4,970, the monumental 5,000 to 5,020 level, and 5,050 to 5,070. Gold is poised for its first weekly advance in three weeks. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported April non-farm payrolls rose by 11.5K, topping the 6.2K consensus, though the pace slowed sharply from March's revised 18.5K reading. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent, as expected. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.2 percent month-on-month, missing the 0.3 percent forecast, while annual wage growth ticked up from 3.4 percent to 3.6 percent but stayed below the 3.8 percent estimate. The yellow metal is on track to snap a three-week losing streak, getting a lift from a softer greenback and retreating oil prices, with markets cautiously optimistic that Washington and Tehran might hammer out a deal to end the conflict.

However, tensions flared again on Thursday following reports of an exchange of fire near the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Despite the renewed hostilities, President Trump downplayed the escalation, telling ABC News, "the ceasefire is ongoing and it's already in effect." Meanwhile, Trump fired off another warning to Tehran on Truth Social, declaring that if Iran doesn't sign the agreement quickly, "we will defeat them even more violently and violently in the future!" Washington is still awaiting Iran's response to the latest US proposal. Though crude has pulled back from recent highs, prices remain elevated due to persistent supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This keeps inflation fears simmering, capping upside for non-yielding assets as markets increasingly bet that major central banks, especially the Fed, will keep rates higher for longer. The most likely path ahead is continued consolidation between 4,695 and 4,764 as traders balance competing forces. The 4,695 to 4,710 support zone is the absolute line in the sand for the bullish setup. Holding above this region keeps buyers firmly in the driver's seat, with the first upside target at 4,764, followed by 4,882. But a decisive breakdown below 4,695 would expose 4,622, then 4,509, and eventually the critical horizontal floor at 4,350. The mixed jobs report offers something for everyone. Payrolls beat, but wage growth disappointed, leaving Fed rate cut hopes alive. The Middle East situation remains a wild card. A genuine peace breakthrough would likely spark dollar strength and gold weakness, while further escalation would do the opposite. The 5,000 psychological threshold is the ultimate bull target. A daily close above 4,882 would signal gold is mounting a serious challenge to that historic level. Conversely, a drop below 4,695 would suggest the weekly gain was nothing more than a pause in a broader downtrend.