FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

During Thursday's session, gold stayed within a six-day range as it looks for its next move. It seems most likely that the bearish correction will continue with a decline or that there will be an upside breakout and indications of a bullish turnaround. With a low of $4,638 and a high of $4,773, a confluence resistance zone was tested during the creation of a comparatively narrow range. That range begins on Tuesday and extends beyond the previous four days as well as the next two. After recent directional swings, the price is coiling close to important decision levels, indicating a squeezed consolidation phase. The consolidation pattern then appears as a tiny broadening formation where the pattern's boundary lines are moving apart. This implies that rather than a sustained breakout that results in additional movement in the breakout's direction, the pattern may expand during a breakout, either upward or downward. Even though the broadening formation is currently in place, its future validity will depend on how the price responds to its parameters. Let's just say that more confirmation is required after a move through the top or bottom of the pattern than in the absence of the expanding pattern. Because of this, follow-through behavior is especially crucial for differentiating between a persistent directional move and a false break. Important short-term resistance is located close to the 100-day moving average, currently at $4,794, as well as at the top of the pattern, at $4,774. Since gold is a long-term trend indicator and was successfully tested as resistance during the previous gain in April, it would need to maintain an advance above that average before it has an opportunity to continue rising. As a result, a layered resistance zone is created, and in order to change broader trend circumstances, momentum must grow significantly. Gold can target the previous lower swing high of $4,891 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $5,024 if it makes a clear break above the 100-day average. The downtrend line would have been regained if it had been touched, positioning gold to aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement confluence zone, which is about between $5,276 and $5,301. Alternatively, a decline below $4,638 and subsequently the higher swing low of $4,500 would maintain the current bearish retracement that followed the January top. The 200-day moving average, which is currently close to $4,342, is where lower objectives finish. Instead, a prolonged break below these levels would strengthen the wider corrective structure's downward continuance.

On May 15, 2026, traders purposefully retreated into gold and silver when the outcomes of the significant Trump-Xi meeting and the most recent, higher-than-expected U.S. inflation figures were revealed. As of this writing, the cease-fire between the United States and Iran is still in effect, and the tanker route through the Strait of Hormuz has been moving along steadily. The high geopolitical risk premium that had encouraged safe-haven flows early this year has been lessened thanks to these and other factors. The central banks' demand for precious metals has remained constant. The People's Bank of China and other developing countries have been buying gold for more than 17 months. While demand for safe havens declines and industrial demand from the solar, electric vehicle, and technology sectors is still strong, silver is still experiencing a shortage. We are keeping a careful eye on the Trump-Xi talks, which encompass rare earth minerals, trade, technical collaboration, and possible agreement on Iran. We might still witness a reversal of the precious metals' price decrease if the meetings turn out well. Gold Spot is currently trading at $4,559.34 on the 4-hour timeframe as of this writing. Price just printed a strong red candle that eliminated the $4,638.5 Fib zone, the red 50 MA, and the floor of the blue declining channel. Following a bearish engulfing candle that closed from the $4,718 high in defiance of the higher low structure, strong distribution and selling have proceeded lower. The price is currently aiming for the brief defense. 786 Fib at $4,561 and then the 1.0 extension level at $4,503. Without witnessing an oversold bounce at this time, the RSI dropped below 40, confirming the loss of gold's upward momentum. According to the volume profile, the range of $4,680 to $4,697 was fair value, but it has since been rejected in favor of sellers below. Any recovery rally should be capped by sellers near the white declining trendline from April, which is approximately $4,671. Within the extended down-channel, the structure is unquestionably bearish below $4,638.