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Trader Journals:::2026-05-16T08:06:42

USD/CAD

USDCAD Market Outlook: Today, we'll focus on the price movement of the USD/CAD pair. The decline in the Canadian dollar is having a significant impact on oil prices. With weak buying and selling pressure, the USD/CAD pair continued its uptrend, closing the trading week at 1.37536. Most of the news released from Canada next week is unlikely to have a significant impact on the balance of power for this pair. However, a lot of information is expected to be released from the US, and the market may use any negative indicators to aid in the recovery. This is where I began to question the future of the Canadian dollar. As mentioned earlier, this expectation needs to be kept in check. A breakout would push the price below 1.36556, providing a foothold for a strong upward movement. Unfortunately, we need to understand where future price movements may occur. I have this scenario in mind, but for now, it's just a backup plan. The current situation looks quite different. So, where is the target for increased buying interest? Buying power will emerge above 1.37756, so the test target is 1.38746.

USD/CAD

Therefore, there is a high probability of confidently buying from this level. When crude oil starts to rise, the trend reversal will become real. As is often the case, the Canadian dollar will be held hostage if we do not act. I don't like arbitrage when the market is open. If the market allows it to pull back to 1.37336 and hold at 1.37056, I will place a buy order. It is likely to fall further, and I do not want to take that risk. I will wait a bit while you wait for it to rise to 1.37946. If the situation continues as it is, I will tell you the secret.
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