FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

On May 15, 2026, the yellow and white metals saw relatively flat trading as investors tried to evaluate the long-term effects of April's unexpectedly strong US inflation report in conjunction with the stability of the short-term US-Iran ceasefire. Both headline and core inflation were somewhat higher than anticipated in April's CPI data, which might stall the trend in rate-sensitive precious metals and put pressure on short-term rate cut expectations. The largest driver of demand for gold is now the strong official sector purchases. For example, China's central bank has been buying bullion for over 17 months in a row, while other emerging-market central banks have increased their gold purchases in reaction to geopolitical threats. Silver has had a different dynamic than gold, as safe-haven inflows have decreased since the truce. The market for silver, a non-monetary precious metal, is being impacted by a persistent supply shortage, slower US growth, slower energy use, and higher interest rates. With solar panels, electrified cars, electronics, AI-related technologies, and other end-use drivers continuing to support the prognosis for industrial demand, the supply-demand balance should continue to be favorable. Both metals should shift from short-term trading on events to longer-term trade fundamentals as long as the truce is upheld and Middle Eastern energy supplies are still curtailed. Investors should be aware of the impending publication of US economic statistics and anticipated central bank recommendations. After green rejection candles held the lower blue declining channel line close to $4,538, Gold Spot traded at $4,555.40 on the two-hour chart. Following a big red distribution candle from $4,718, the price printed out a bullish hammer candle, holding above the 0.786 Fib line at $4,561 and the previous swing bottom. The dynamic ceiling where lower highs continue to be established is the red 50 MA, which is close to $4,670. $4,538–4,555 is identified as a strong area of confluence support in the one-hour volume profile. The channel's midline will be at $4,670, while the overhead zone will be at $4,597 (0.382 Fib). A stabilizing support level was discovered near the floor of the blue channel in the two-hour period, even if the market is still seen as bearish and is still below $4,670.

As traders concentrated on the strengthening dollar and rising Treasury yields, gold tested new lows. Bond traders' wagers that the Fed will have to hike rates to combat inflation caused Treasury yields to rise. While the yield on 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.65%, the yield on 2-year Treasuries increased above 4.10%. Crucially, the 30-year Treasury yield attempted to reach a level over 5.20%. The increase in long-term yields indicates that investors are concerned about the prospects for long-term inflation. It should be mentioned that there has been a sell-off in European debt markets today as well. Japan's yields reached multi-decade highs. It appears that some traders are compelled to sell their positions in other markets in order to offset losses due to the uneasy mood in the bond market. The demand for safe-haven assets increased due to rising yields, which was positive for the US dollar. Gold and other commodities denominated in dollars are negative when the dollar is strong because buyers using other currencies will find them more costly. As markets braced for the possible resumption of the military campaign against Iran, Brent oil prices increased slightly. If Iran does not accept a deal, President Trump threatened to resume strikes. The demand for riskier assets decreased as global tensions increased, which was negative for gold. Technically speaking, gold is still trying to settle below the $4530–$4550 support line. Gold will go toward the next support, which is situated in the $4350–$4370 zone, if it is able to settle below the $4530 level. There is a lot of room to develop momentum in the near future because the RSI is in the moderate range.