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XAUUSD 4H Technical Analysis: Bearish Rejection at Supply Zone*
XAUUSD on the 4H chart is trading at 4,454.78 after a sharp rejection from the supply zone between 4,497.14 and 4,503.28. Price rallied into the orange shaded area, failed to hold, and dropped over 50$ in a single bearish candle. The red dashed projection suggests a continuation down toward 4,465 if sellers maintain control. Bias remains bearish below 4,497.14. Key Levels & Market Structure *Resistance Zone – 4,497.14 to 4,503.28* The orange shaded area is a strong supply zone where price has repeatedly failed to break above. Both the recent retest and the earlier test on May 27 showed aggressive selling, with long upper wicks confirming supply. This zone now acts as the line in the sand for bears. A 4H close above 4,503.28 would invalidate the bearish setup and open a move back to 4,510.00. *Current Price Action* After rejecting 4,503.28, price broke below 4,490 with strong momentum. The last two candles are bullish engulfing, showing a minor bounce from the 4,400 low. This looks like a pullback into broken support around 4,460-4,465 before the next leg down. The structure is lower highs and lower lows on the 4H timeframe. *Support Levels:* 1. *4,445.00*: Immediate support and the current bounce level. A break below here opens the path to 4,430. 2. *4,425.00*: Secondary support where the last bullish wick started. 3. *4,400.00*: Major support and the swing low. A break below targets 4,395 and lower. *Resistance Levels:* 1. *4,465.00-4,470.00*: First resistance and the area of the red arrow start. Expect sellers here on a pullback. 2. *4,497.14*: Key resistance and the bottom of the supply zone. 3. *4,503.28*: Major resistance and invalidation level for shorts. Bias & Trade Plan Bias is *bearish* below 4,497.14. The cleanest setup is a short on a pullback into 4,465-4,470 with a bearish rejection candle. First target is 4,445, second target is 4,425, and the extended target is 4,400. Only consider longs if price closes and holds above 4,503.28 on the 4H. Money Management For a short setup at 4,468 with stop at 4,505: *Entry*: 4,465-4,470 *Stop Loss*: 4,505, 35-40$ above entry and above supply zone *Take Profit 1*: 4,445, 20-25$ profit for partial close *Take Profit 2*: 4,425, 40-45$ profit *Take Profit 3*: 4,400, 65-70$ profit This gives 1:1.5 to 1:2 R:R. Risk only 1-2% per trade. On XAUUSD, 0.10 lot moves 1$ per 0.10$ price change. With a 40$ stop, 0.05 lot risks 200$. Adjust lot size so a stop-out equals 1-2% of your account. Move stop to breakeven at 1R to lock risk-free. Key level to watch: 4,497.14. A rejection here confirms the drop toward 4,400. If price breaks above 4,503.28, the bearish thesis is invalidated. Want me to calculate exact lot size for 2% risk on a 1000$ account?
