TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF BTCUSD H4 BTCUSD H4 chart shows price around 74,095.71 after a prolonged downtrend from above 78,098.09. The pair made a low near 73,416.29 and is now attempting a recovery. Price has crossed above the blue moving average but remains well below the yellow and red moving averages. Both yellow and red lines are still sloping down, so the higher timeframe trend remains bearish. Short term structure is shifting as price forms higher lows, but it needs to break the yellow MA to confirm a larger reversal.
RSI DIVERGENCE RSI 14 is at 47.77, just below neutral 50. During the downtrend RSI made multiple lows near 30, then started printing higher lows while price made a new low around 73,416.29. This shows bullish divergence, suggesting selling momentum is weakening. RSI is now rising toward 50. A break and hold above 50 would confirm buyers are taking short term control. If RSI rejects near 50 and turns down, the downtrend likely resumes. VOLUME Volume was very high on the big red candles that pushed price down from 75,757 to 73,416, confirming strong selling pressure. During the recent bounce, green volume has been light compared to the sell-off volume. The last few candles show small green volume bars, meaning the recovery lacks strong participation so far. For a real trend change, green volume needs to expand on a break above the yellow moving average. High volume on red candles keeps the bearish bias alive. MOVING AVERAGES Blue line is the fast moving average, yellow is the slow moving average, and red is a higher period trend line. Price broke below all three and blue crossed below yellow and red, confirming the downtrend. Now price has reclaimed the blue line near 73,900, which is the first positive sign. Blue is flattening and turning up slightly. Yellow line around 74,976.89 and red line near 76,537.49 are major resistance zones. As long as price trades below the yellow line, the broader trend stays bearish. A close above yellow would signal a shift. SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE Immediate support is at the recent low and consolidation zone near 73,416.29. Below that, there is no visible support on the chart. Resistance is at the yellow moving average around 74,976.89, then the red line and horizontal level near 76,537.49. Price is currently in no-man's land between the blue MA support and yellow MA resistance. A break below 73,416 with volume opens the next downside target. A break above 74,976 with volume would target the red line zone. ENTRY POINT Two setups to watch. First is breakout entry for reversal. If price closes above the yellow moving average near 74,976.89 with strong green volume, a long can be taken with stop loss below the blue moving average, targeting 76,537.49. Second is breakdown continuation. If price rejects at the yellow MA and closes below 73,416.29 with red volume, a short can be taken with stop loss above the blue line. Trend is still down on higher timeframes, so shorts with the trend have edge. Longs are counter-trend and need strong confirmation above yellow MA.
