GBP/JPY H4 Timeframe: On the GBP/JPY H4 timeframe chart, the overall price structure remains bullish, despite a correction in recent sessions from the peak in early June. Observing the position of the 100-day moving average (MA) and 200-day moving average (MA) suggests that the medium- to long-term trend remains positive. The 100-day moving average (MA), shown with a blue line, is above the red 200-day moving average (MA), indicating that the upward momentum established since mid-May continues to dominate the market. Furthermore, both moving averages have begun to rise, indicating that the average price has been steadily moving higher over the past few months. After experiencing significant selling pressure from late April to mid-May, GBP/JPY successfully formed a price floor around 211.26 and then gradually recovered. From there, a series of higher lows and higher highs formed, marking the key shift in market structure from bearish to bullish. The rally continued until it reached the resistance area of 215.49 in early June before profit-taking pushed the price back down to around 214.66. Currently, the 214.39 area is the closest support area and is crucial to monitor. This level previously served as resistance and was subsequently broken through, transforming into support. As long as the price remains above 214.39, the potential for the uptrend to continue is quite high. The presence of the 100-day moving average (MA) just below this area also strengthens the validity of this support area, as it often serves as a dynamic zone where buyers re-enter the market.
If selling pressure intensifies and the price breaks through 214.39, the next downside target could potentially be the 213.29 support area. This level has strong technical significance as it repeatedly served as a consolidation area during the second half of May. A break below 213.29 would shift medium-term sentiment to neutral and open up room for a deeper correction towards 212.61. This area serves as horizontal support and was a key turning point in the formation of the previous uptrend. On the upside, the first resistance level is at 215.49, the peak of the recent movement. The price has attempted to break through this level several times but has been unable to maintain strong bullish momentum. This indicates continued selling pressure from market participants taking profits in this area. If buyers are able to push the price through and consistently close H4 candles above 215.49, the opportunity for strengthening towards the next resistance level at 216.56 will increase. The 216.56 level is a major resistance level and also one of the highest points in the movement range over the past few months, making it a potential primary target for bulls. From a momentum perspective, the ongoing correction still appears to be a healthy retracement within a larger uptrend. The price has not shown any signs of a strong bearish reversal, as it remains above the 100- and 200-day moving averages. As long as both moving averages maintain their bullish configuration, with the 100-day moving average above the 200-day moving average, any weakness is likely to be exploited as a buying opportunity by trend-following market participants. It's also worth noting that the area between 213.29 and 214.39 is now the main support zone for the bullish trend. As long as the price moves above this zone, the dominant scenario remains a retest of the 215.49 resistance and a potential rally towards 216.56. Conversely, failure to maintain this support area could trigger a shift in the price structure to a more sideways movement and increase the risk of a correction towards 212.61 or even 211.26. Overall, the GBP/JPY H4 technical analysis remains bullish, supported by the 100-day moving average (MA) positioning above the 200-day moving average (MA) and the maintained higher high and higher low structure. The current correction appears more like a consolidation phase after a strong rally than a trend reversal signal. Therefore, the market's primary focus in the coming sessions will be on the price's ability to maintain the 214.39 support level and break through the 215.49 resistance level to confirm the continuation of the uptrend towards the 216.56 area.
