EURUSD Daily Forecast EUR/USD Edges Higher Ahead of ECB as Technical Pressure Mounts EUR/USD is attempting a cautious recovery near 1.1550 during early Thursday trading, but the broader structure remains under pressure following a breakdown from a symmetrical triangle and ongoing resistance from key trendlines. The pair’s modest gains reflect temporary relief rather than a decisive shift in market sentiment, with traders awaiting guidance from the European Central Bank amid lingering macro and geopolitical risks. The European Central Bank is expected to raise the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, ending an eight-meeting pause, in response to accelerating inflation pressures driven by elevated energy costs. Investors are focused not just on the rate move but on President Christine Lagarde’s commentary regarding potential second-round inflation effects and the broader policy trajectory for the Eurozone. Markets have priced in the rate hike, so nuance in the guidance will likely drive near-term price action. Technically, EUR/USD remains challenged. The pair trades below a downward-sloping 20-period EMA 1.1603, which now acts as immediate resistance. The broken ascending trendline from March 1.1623 further reinforces overhead pressure, while the longer-term descending trendline near 1.1707 caps any significant upside. On the downside, immediate support is around the June 8 low 1.1500, with the March 16 swing low 1.1411 marking a deeper structural floor. Momentum indicators suggest cautious dynamics. RSI below 40 indicates persistent selling pressure, although the pair is not yet oversold, leaving room for continued retracement if bearish momentum persists. Price action within the broken symmetrical triangle highlights that the market is still consolidating its prior decline, with recovery attempts likely to encounter selling at key resistance points. Geopolitical factors remain a secondary influence. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran continue to underpin safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, which constrains Euro strength despite the potential for short-term relief. Combined with the cautious Fed outlook implied by recent US inflation data, EUR/USD is navigating a narrow corridor where technical and macro factors interact closely. Right now, the immediate focus is on the ECB’s policy decision and Lagarde’s post-meeting commentary. A dovish nuance could allow EUR/USD to extend toward 1.1600–1.1620, while any hawkish tone is likely to reinforce the pair’s structural weakness and prompt a retest of 1.1500. Until there is a sustained break above the EMA and broken trendlines, EUR/USD remains technically vulnerable with the broader trend still skewed toward the downside.
