Well, there's definitely no time to be bored with our beloved USD/JPY. The concert continues without an intermission. After yesterday's geopolitical show with Iran and another series of loud statements from Trump, the pair dropped to 159.73 overnight. The bears have already started to claim victory and envision a move towards the 158 level, but the market quickly reminded them that it punishes those who celebrate success too early. With the opening of Tokyo, buyers launched a real counterattack and almost completely recovered from yesterday's decline. The pair quickly climbed back to 160.40 with little resistance. Looking at the bigger picture, the reason is quite clear: after yesterday's bond rally, there was a pullback, yields rose, and the dollar immediately felt much more confident. However, the euphoria was short-lived. As soon as USD/JPY reached the 200 EMA on the 15-minute chart, sellers emerged again. Currently, the pair is being pushed back towards the 160 level, and today's chart resembles more of a battle to trigger stop losses in both directions rather than a trend. Honestly, I'm not surprised at all. The market found itself between two fires before the next week. On one side, the Fed, on the other - the Bank of Japan. Plus, the situation with Iran is far from over. According to the news, the world has almost reached a resolution, but it's so "almost" that the market rechecks every few hours to see if a new episode of this series has begun. A special bonus for volatility lovers - the BOJ meeting will take place without Ueda. This is the first time in 30 years that a meeting will be held without the head of the central bank. Every word from BOJ Vice President Uchida will now be scrutinized, trying to understand whether it's a new policy of the Bank of Japan or just a different person at the microphone. By the way, Japanese publications have already revealed all the details about Uchida, where, how, how much, and with whom. Therefore, personally, I'm heading into the weekend without a clear direction and without unnecessary heroism. The morning buyout showed that talks about 162.00 haven't disappeared. But it's still too early to write off the bears. Well... I'm shutting down the terminals, leaving the market to deal with geopolitics on its own. If we open below 160 on Monday, it's one conversation. If we climb back to the highs again - a completely different one. Well, for now, I wish everyone a great weekend. And yes, if Trump wins over Iran a couple more times over the weekend, I won't even be surprised.
