FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

After rising by almost 6.5% over the previous few days, gold (XAU/USD) continues to retain gains on Tuesday. However, after surpassing the $4,300 mark, the precious metal's comeback has stalled and is now essentially flat as investors wait for the US-Iran peace deal's specifics and the major central banks' monetary policy decisions. According to US President Donald Trump, the agreement has already been signed, and the specifics could be made public by Friday. In the meantime, investors are waiting for further information on issues like Iran's nuclear program and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused global inflation to skyrocket over the past three months, since a re-escalation of the conflict is still a possibility. In addition, traders are waiting for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and other key central banks across the world to make monetary policy choices. The market will be keen to see if officials have abandoned plans for monetary tightening as a result of the peace agreement. At $4,315, XAU/USD is continuing its corrective phase beneath a thick band of adjacent resistances. The daily chart's momentum indicators are increasing, although they are not yet at positive levels. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is lingering around 43, indicating that downside pressure is still predominant despite the recent stabilization. Bulls in gold are probably going to be tested at $4,400. Before the declining trendline from January's top, which is currently at $4,430, and the crucial 200-day SMA, which is at $4,465, a prior support region near $4,380 (May 27, 28 lows) is probably going to act as resistance. The late-May highs in the $4.590 region are the aim further up. On the downside, Monday's low around $4,260 could offer support before the $4,023 low from last week. The late October 2025 level, at $3,888, comes into play if there is a bearish reaction below that level. On June 17, 2026, there was no clear direction in the exchange of gold and silver. Today marked the end of the Federal Reserve's June 16–17, 2026 FOMC meeting. Chair Kevin Warsh led the Fed for the first time. It is anticipated that this conference would offer crucial clarification on monetary policy during a time of high inflation. Gold is still in high demand in the official sector. There are also additional central banks in emerging markets, including the People's Bank of China, which has been a buyer for more than 17 consecutive months. There has been some positive inflation support for real rates and the dollar. On the 2-hour chart, Gold Spot is currently at $4,345. Bullish candles are defending the lower side of the descending blue channel around $4,306, while rejection wicks are still emerging from lower levels. As buyers absorb supply, bullish candles have established higher lows from the swing low of $4,182. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually returning to normal as the conditional U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which has been in place for more than eleven weeks, continues to hold. This deal is still unstable. The FOMC convened during June 16–17, 2026. Going forward, the metals are probably going to shift from headline risk to more fundamental trades. The 50-period moving average, meanwhile, is still providing support around $4,320. The market is still neutral with a positive tilt, and the RSI has stayed close to 52. A cluster of volume has developed in the $4,280–$4,320 region, which may serve as pivot levels. The declining trendline around $4,364 continues to limit resistance. As the market moves inside a wider down-channel created from the high of $4,575, the overall market structure is neutral to bullish above $4,306. The market continues to generate higher lows and fair-value formation along Fibonacci areas.