FX.co ★ Natural Gas, NG

As of June 16, 2026, oil fundamentals are favorable due to promises to open the Strait of Hormuz shipping channel and a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. For months, the Strait has limited oil exports to the Middle East, which has resulted in significant reductions in oil production. Although oil shippers are expected to begin gradually passing vessels through it, some representatives of oil companies estimate that a return to normal will take several months and won't be finished until late 2026 or even later. As of June 16, 2026, natural gas fundamentals are stable, and there is an ample supply to meet the needs of US gas customers. Gas storage inventories have surpassed five-year averages, and related U.S. natural gas output has been rising. Solid injections were demonstrated by recent EIA statistics, and LNG exports continued to be high. Balanced outlooks into the second half of the year are reinforced by moderate demand projections and less weather-driven volatility. NG is currently trading at $3.170 on the 2H NYMEX chart. The 50-period moving average, which was close to $3.15, has been breached by consecutive bullish candles. The price has increased within a blue channel that is rising. Growing buyer control is highlighted by consecutive higher highs from the $3.099 swing low. The RSI is around 52. $3.10 is indicated as a possible support pivot in the price-volume profile. Upside targets in the $3.203 to $3.297 range are projected by Fibonacci extension levels. For the time being, the market is still optimistic, above $3.099. Higher highs and higher lows continue to be a bullish pattern. As the conditional cease-fire between the United States and Iran continued for over 11 weeks, crude oil markets remained rather quiet on June 17, 2026. Over time, tankers have begun to cross the Straits of Hormuz once more. The region's geopolitical risk, which was a factor in the high volatility early in the year, has mostly been eliminated by the cease-fire. Supply and demand now govern the remainder of the market. Due to the ongoing uncertainty, both WTI and Brent have experienced less volatility. US production is still strong and close to all-time highs. Outside of the alliance, nations like Brazil, Guyana, and Canada are experiencing strong growth, while OPEC+ has maintained output discipline. Regional and Iranian supplies are coming back, though not completely just yet. Although global demand is rebounding, albeit more slowly, especially in Asian markets, growth in 2026 is still anticipated to be moderate due to reduced spending and higher interest rates in rich nations. With mild spring weather thus far this year, natural gas was also quietly moving on good inventories in the US and Europe. Concerns about shipping in the LNG industry were allayed by the cease-fire in the area, and spot prices were low. However, it is anticipated that long-term demand for LNG in Europe and Asia would be stable. In addition to another upcoming OPEC+ meeting, US inventories are receiving focus. The markets for natural gas and commodities are still at risk, particularly because the cease-fire is still up for debate. The price of natural gas futures is $3.170. It is currently trading up within an ascending channel on the 2-hour chart, having surpassed the 50 moving average's resistance at $3.15. The $3.099 swing low has been followed by a string of higher highs and higher lows. Pullbacks into the region of the rising channel support are still being defended by buyers. The volume profile shows that the $3.10 region is a support, and the RSI has moved back over 50. The Fibonacci projection at $3.297 is the next area of upside goal after it has met resistance at $3.203.