FX.co ★ EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY cross is starting to show signs of fatigue after spending much of the past several months in a broad upward structure. During early European trading, the pair drifted toward the 184.60 area as renewed demand for the Japanese Yen and fresh intervention warnings from Japanese authorities encouraged traders to trim bullish exposure. The latest decline is not yet a major trend reversal, but the technical picture has become noticeably less constructive. Buyers who previously controlled the advance from March into April are losing momentum, while sellers are beginning to test important support zones. The battle around the 100-day moving average has become particularly important, as it may determine whether EUR/JPY resumes its broader uptrend or enters a deeper corrective phase. Japanese Authorities Increase Pressure on Speculators The primary driver behind the recent Yen strength is renewed intervention rhetoric from Tokyo. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama once again warned that authorities are prepared to take decisive measures against excessive currency speculation. While verbal intervention does not always result in direct market action, traders tend to respect such warnings, particularly when the Yen has experienced prolonged weakness. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding has increased demand for traditional safe-haven assets, allowing the Yen to attract additional support and limiting upside potential in EUR/JPY. Daily Chart Reveals a Fragile Technical Structure The daily chart shows a market that remains trapped within a broader range despite maintaining a longer-term bullish bias. Price has slipped back below the 100-day Simple Moving Average near 184.60, an important development because this average acted as dynamic support during previous pullbacks. The pair is also trading beneath the 20-day Bollinger moving average, suggesting that short-term momentum has shifted away from buyers. Although the broader structure still contains higher lows compared with the March bottom, recent candles indicate hesitation and a lack of conviction from bullish participants. Momentum Indicators Favor the Sellers Technical indicators are gradually leaning in favor of the bears. The Relative Strength Index sits near 43, reflecting weakening momentum without yet entering oversold territory. This suggests there is still room for additional downside before exhaustion conditions appear. Meanwhile, MACD remains close to the neutral line and has failed to generate a convincing bullish crossover, highlighting the lack of directional strength. The Stochastic oscillator has rolled lower from recent highs and is approaching oversold territory, confirming that short-term selling pressure has increased during the latest decline. Support Zones Become the Market's Main Focus Support levels are now receiving greater attention as sellers attempt to extend control. The first critical zone sits around 184.40, which aligns closely with the lower Bollinger Band and recent price congestion. A decisive daily close beneath this area would represent a technical breakdown and expose the May 7 swing low near 183.50. Below that, the March 31 low around 182.83 becomes the next major bearish target. These levels are significant because they represent areas where buyers previously returned to defend the broader trend. Resistance Levels Bulls Must Reclaim For buyers to regain confidence, the pair first needs to recover the 100-day SMA around 184.60 and establish acceptance above that level. A sustained move higher would then target the Bollinger midline near 185.33, which has acted as a central pivot throughout the recent range. Beyond that, the upper Bollinger Band near 186.25 remains the major resistance barrier. A breakout above 186.25 would invalidate much of the current bearish pressure and place the broader uptrend back in command, potentially opening the door toward the April highs. Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for the Sessions Ahead The bullish case depends on buyers successfully defending the 184.40 support region and reclaiming the moving averages overhead. Such a recovery would suggest that the recent weakness is merely a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend. The bearish scenario appears slightly stronger at the moment, particularly if intervention fears continue to support the Yen and geopolitical uncertainty sustains safe-haven demand. A clean break below 184.40 could trigger additional selling pressure toward 183.50 and potentially 182.83, where larger buyers may finally attempt to stabilize the market. Conclusion EUR/JPY remains at an important technical crossroads as weakening momentum collides with a still-intact longer-term trend structure. The pair has lost ground below key moving averages, momentum indicators are favoring sellers, and growing support for the Japanese Yen is creating fresh headwinds. While the broader bullish trend has not been fully broken, buyers are clearly on the defensive. As long as price remains below 184.60 and struggles to reclaim higher ground, the risk of a deeper correction toward 183.50 and 182.83 will remain elevated. The next few daily closes around the 184.40-184.60 zone could ultimately determine the pair's next major directional move.