FX.co ★ EUR/USD

Greetings, good afternoon, Randyiqbal. It's a pleasure to be back to discuss the latest developments in the EUR/USD currency pair. I'd like to share my perspective based on technical analysis using a fairly simple strategy: combining the 50-day Moving Average (MA), Bollinger Bands, and MACD to identify trend direction and identify entry opportunities with higher probability. Starting from the daily timeframe, it appears that EUR/USD remains in a fairly strong downtrend. This was confirmed after the price broke through a key support area around 1.1410. To date, there have been no signs of a significant change in the trend structure, so the price remains open for further decline. The price, which remains below the Middle Bollinger Band and the 50-day Moving Average, indicates that seller pressure remains dominant. Furthermore, the MACD indicator also shows a histogram that remains below the signal line and is consistently moving in negative territory. This condition further confirms that the main EUR/USD trend remains bearish. However, I also see the possibility of a short-term upward correction. Over the past two days, there has been an increase in buyer volume, pushing the price higher. This correction has the potential to retest the 1.1410 area, a former support area that has now potentially transformed into resistance, often known as a Support Resistance Flip (SR Flip). Areas like this are typically quite important because they often trigger price rejection before the main trend resumes. Looking at the H4 timeframe, upward momentum still appears quite strong. The MACD histogram shows increasing buyer volume, while the price has moved above the middle Bollinger Band, indicating continued short-term bullish momentum. However, referring to the 50-day Moving Average, the price remains below it, suggesting that the medium- to long-term trend remains bearish. In other words, the current uptrend is more likely a correction than the start of a trend reversal. Based on this overall analysis, I conclude that the major trend for EUR/USD remains bearish, while the minor trend is bullish, suggesting a correction. Therefore, my trading plan is to wait for the bullish momentum to weaken, then look for a rejection signal in the supply area around 1.1410, supported by increasing seller volume or bearish confirmation around the 50-day moving average. If this scenario occurs, this area could be an attractive opportunity to open a sell position with a downside target towards 1.1320. By maintaining disciplined risk management, I hope this trading opportunity will yield optimal results. I hope this analysis can provide additional reference for those of you monitoring EUR/USD movements. I hope this is helpful and happy trading!