Greetings, good morning. I hope you are always healthy and your trading is going smoothly. While listening to the analysis you've shared, I'd also like to join in the discussion and share my views on the USD/JPY currency pair. My strategy is quite simple: follow the trend using the Moving Average, Bollinger Bands, and MACD indicators to identify the trend direction and find entry points with a higher probability.
Looking at the daily timeframe, the uptrend remains very strong. The price managed to break through and maintain above the resistance level of 160,550, confirming the formation of a higher high structure, one of the main characteristics of an uptrend. Furthermore, the price remains consistently above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that buyers continue to dominate the market. Regarding the MACD indicator, the histogram remains above the zero line and the MACD line remains above the signal line. This indicates that bullish momentum is still maintained. As long as there is no structural change, the opportunity for an increase remains dominant. Moving to the H4 timeframe, technical conditions also continue to support the continuation of the uptrend. The price remains above the 50- and 100-period Moving Averages, indicating that buying pressure remains stronger than selling pressure. While the price has consolidated in recent sessions, this consolidation has formed a new support area around 161,100. This area has been tested several times and has always resulted in a rebound, making it a crucial support area for seeking buying opportunities in the event of a correction. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are indicating conditions that are beginning to trend toward overbought, thus a short-term pullback is possible. On the other hand, the MACD indicator on the H4 chart briefly moved below the signal line, although the price remains in an uptrend. In my opinion, this indicates a temporary weakening of momentum, rather than a trend reversal. Therefore, the most anticipated signal is when the MACD breaks out above the signal line, as this would confirm that buyers are regaining market dominance. On the H1 chart, the bullish trend is also clearly visible. The price is still moving above the 50- and 100-period moving averages, thus maintaining the upward trend structure on the lower time frames. As long as the price remains above the nearest support area, the opportunity for further upside is still quite high. This situation makes buying on pullbacks a safer option than chasing overvalued prices. Conclusion: Based on the analysis on the Daily, H4, and H1 chart, I maintain a bullish outlook on USD/JPY. The uptrend structure is still valid, the price is above the moving average, and there are no signs of a significant trend change. Although there are indications of overbought conditions and weakening momentum on the MACD, this condition has the potential to be a temporary correction before the main trend resumes. Trading Plan: Bias: Bullish (Buy) Entry area: 161,500 or wait for a pullback to the nearest support area. Entry confirmation: MACD crosses above the signal line again, accompanied by the appearance of a bullish candle. Stop loss: Below support at 161.100. Profit target: Adjusted to the next resistance level, with a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:1, or better if possible. By maintaining disciplined risk management and waiting for confirmation according to the strategy, trading opportunities will be more measurable and can minimize emotional decisions. Hopefully, this analysis can provide additional references and discussion material for everyone. Thank you.
