FX.co ★ XAG/USD, SILVER

Last week, Spot Silver closed at $59.19, down $5.69, or 8.77%. The market is down $0.61, or 1.02%, at $58.58 early on Monday. In the same week, three significant support levels broke. In five sessions, the swing bottom, the midway point of the all-time high, and the 52-week moving average all fell. It wasn't a slow decline in sales. Warsh's hawkish first meeting and the subsequent rate repricing were the driving forces behind the liquidation. During a holiday week, two events fall on the same day. In his first public speech as Fed Chair, Warsh will address the ECB Forum on Wednesday. Instead of the customary Friday, the June payrolls report arrives on Thursday morning, and the desks are already empty in preparation for the long weekend. Last week, Spot Silver removed the swing bottom at $61.01, the 52-week moving average at $62.94, and 50% of the all-time high at $60.83, confirming its downward trend. With a long-term Fibonacci objective at $46.48 and the October 2025 main low at $45.55 as the next significant downward targets, the move to $55.60 opens the door to a further price decline. The first indication of a recovery will be overcoming $60.83, or 50% of the all-time high, but, in order to draw in some serious buyers, buyers will need to recapture the 52-week moving average and re-establish a supportive foundation. Silver must simultaneously sell from both sides of that trade. Every customer outside of the US must pay extra for the metal due to the strengthening of the dollar. In comparison to a metal that pays nothing, rising yields boost the return on bonds and cash. Another round of hawkish confirmation from the data propels the selling toward the downside goals the technicals identified in a market that already violated every significant support level last week. The holiday book exacerbates the situation. Thursday afternoon's thin liquidity causes the selling to pick up speed more quickly than it would during a typical session. The most risky combination for anyone keeping a long position into the weekend is a hot print landing in a weak market with a confirmed downturn. Last Wednesday, silver fell to a new corrective low of $55.60 before consolidating close to it, suggesting that selling pressure may be lessening following a steep plunge. Silver stayed inside Friday's range of $55.70 to $59.58 on Monday, making those two levels important short-term support and resistance, respectively. The bottom limit of two declining trend channels—one that started lately and the other that covers a longer timeframe—also indicates support close to the lows. The second indication of support close to both channels' lower channel boundaries came from last week's lows. Furthermore, previous resistance from the October highs at $54.49 and the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level are close to the lows at $54.23. The 20-day moving average, which is currently at $65.97 and declining, is the initial trend resistance for the short-term downturn that followed the May swing high of $89.38. Due to its alignment with a downtrend line that started in June, that average gains additional significance. Earlier in June, silver dropped below the 200-day moving average and the long-term uptrend line, which had served as dynamic trend support since March 2024. A failed rally or resistance test close to the 20-day average would strengthen the pessimistic perspective because the 20-day moving average is now below those levels. The breakthrough below those long-term trend support indications suggests that silver is likely to continue its decline after such a test. Near-term resistance is first close to the previous trend low of $61.51 and then at the lower daily high of $62.38 last Wednesday, despite the possibility of a bounce. A positive reversal will occur if there is a clear rally over that high. The significance of an eventual breakout above Wednesday's high is further increased by the fact that trade since Wednesday's wide-ranging day has stayed inside that day's range.