FX.co ★ CL/Crude Oil

As traders responded to the relatively antagonistic headlines following the negotiations between the United States and Iran in Switzerland, the light sweet crude oil market immediately surged. However, since then, Iran has been open to the idea of nuclear inspectors, which is a significant step in the right direction. If everything else is equal, this market dropped very instantly, and we are currently lower than we were on Friday. I believe that crude oil is currently attempting to price in the concept of peace, and we have nearly completely recovered from the war itself. All of those profits could be wiped away if the market drops to $67, and I do believe that will happen someday. I understand that there are still some supply chain issues with crude oil, so I would anticipate some resilience, but whether or not we fall lower than that is, in my opinion, a very different topic. The 4-hour chart shows WTI crude oil around $73.70, with bullish rebound candles guarding the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement close to $77.69 following a decline below the blue falling channel. A sequence of higher lows off the $72.79 swing low and bullish rejection wicks show buyer absorption at support. Neutral market momentum is indicated by an RSI of about 48. According to the volume profile, the primary pivot cluster is between $77 and $80. Resistance is still being provided by the 50-period moving average at $80.76. Overall, as the price explores the lower edge of the wider downtrend channel, the market structure is neutral to bullish above $77.69. A probable stabilization is indicated by the Fibonacci confluences and the emerging higher lows. As of June 30, the basic picture of global oil is a trade-off between OPEC+ production discipline and non-OPEC growth, driven by the ongoing expansion of US shale production, as well as sustained high utilization rates in important consumption regions and product demand from the transportation and petrochem sectors, which are supported by seasonal summer demand and modest shifts in the storage balances of important global storage nodes. The most recent inventory data for US oil indicates no net change, with operational levels at strategic locations nearing working minimums. Meanwhile, the demand for refined products has increased due to ongoing economic activity. Strong production of natural gas in the US is anticipated to keep breaking records, driven by both oil-associated quantities and dedicated gas fields. Significant volumes will continue to be sent to international markets if LNG export facilities continue to be used at high levels. Gas in storage is above typical for this time of year, and inventory builds are still well underway. While industrial demand is constant, power demand varies depending on the weather. The 2-hour NYMEX chart shows natural gas futures at $3.167. In the green bullish channel with mixed candles, the price is holding close to the 50-period red moving average around $3.17. Bullish rejection wicks from the $3.099 region show that buyers are still in charge of dips. At the RSI, which is about 50, momentum is neutral. With a target of $3.229-$3.254 from the Fibonacci extension, the $3.12 level serves as a solid support pivot in the volume profile. Above $3.099, the trend is bullish, with buyers active on dips due to higher highs and lows.